So, after a long, drawn-out argument with myself, I decided that I would let the stats decide my Super Bowl pick.  I am going to feel sick, either way…as my hatred for the Steelers and Reverend Warner are both well-documented.

When thinking about how I wanted to look at the stats, I tried to be ever-mindful of the “you can make stats say anything you want” phenomenon.  I wanted to be true to the stats and maintain a one-for-one statistical relevancy…that is, one stat is no more important than another.  However, I wanted to make sure that if one team enjoyed a significant advantage over the other in a particular category, then that would be accounted for also.  Kind of like having two levels: “Advantage, Steelers” and “Strong Advantage, Steelers”.

As I thought about it more and more, I realized that such a system already exists in the world of professional sports.  It is called the Ten Point Must System.  So, here are the rules:

• If one team’s advantage is < a 5% improvement over the other team for a particular stat, then each team gets 10 points for that stat
• If the advantage is 5.01% to 20.0%, then it is a 10-9 win for that stat
• If the advantage is > 20%, then it is a 10-8 win for that stat
• I did not include every single stat, only those that could potentially affect a game — for instance, I did not include “Total Plays from Scrimmage”, since the Cards scored with greater explosiveness and would have lost a point with no real justification for it…and I included not only the Fourth Down Conversion Percentage, but also the number of Fourth Down Attempts, as that is a direct reflection of the size of the onions of the head coach, which could absolutely have an impact on this game 
• These are only regular season stats — I understand that these teams, especially the Cardinals, have been exceeding their performance in the regular season thus far in the playoffs, but the manner of performance over a full 17-game season is the truest measure we have of objective statistical significance

So, without further ado, here are the stats.

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So, while I was thinking about how I would choose my Super Bowl pick this year, I had lots of things to consider.  First and foremost, I hate the Steelers.  I am a dyed-in-the-wool Cowboys fan, and I hate the Steelers more than I hate the Redskins or Giants.  I would normally put the Eagles on that list, but not until some other team decides to overspend for Peyton…errrrr…Donovan McNabb.  The bigger the game, the worse he performs…which I guess is fine, because almost everyone who has ever played the position fits into that category, but he is the singular most annoying figure in pro sports for me right now.

Anyway, I though that I could go ahead and pick from my heart.  But if I do that, what is the pick?  I would probably say that the one thing I hate more than the Steelers is pro athletes who use the fact that cameras are in front of them to talk about Jesus.  Granted, hearing it from Kurt Warner is far better than hearing it from Ray “The Defendant” Lewis, but it still goes against me like rat poison.  Do I go with the much-hated Steelers?  Or the Jesus freak?  And how the hell can I pick the Steelers with a clear conscience, with all that is at stake?

Let’s quickly look at what is at stake, shall we?

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First, let me start off by saying that Tony Dungy is a great man.  I have only the most ancillary contact with him and what he does, but I lived in Tampa when he was the coach of the Bucs and I live in Indy now, so I have heard probably 25 first-hand stories of cool things he has done in the community.  He would walk barefoot over 10 miles of broken glass to visit one kid with cancer.  His book is an inspiration to many, and a shining example of how to do things the right way, whatever your profession.

Granted, he is a bit church-y for my tastes, but I have never been so weak minded that I needed the construct of organized religion to have a relationship with a higher power or believe there is something out there bigger than myself…and I don’t mean Andy Reid!

Anyway, let’s not beat a dead horse here.  Tony Dungy is a great man and he spreads all kinds of joy away from the Colts complex.  Can we just say that is his legacy and leave it at that?

I think any Colts fan that looks at his resume would probably prefer it that way, too.  When you look at the stats, he looks like a great regular season coach, and that’s it.  Here are a list of his coaching “accomplishments” in the postseason:

1. He has a losing record in the post-season.  Don’t tell any Colts fans this, but so does The Chokin’ Gomer, a.k.a. Peyton Manning (props to RavensDale for the Chokin’ Gomer reference).
2. Aside from “The Rex Grossman Super Bowl”, the bigger the game, the worse his teams perform.  He has a .500 record in Wild-Card games, a .429 record in Divisional games, and a .333 record in Conference Championships.
3. He has been the head coach of the hands-down best team in the NFL at least 4 times and has only one Super Bowl ring (not one of those 4 NFL-best teams, by the way)…and that Super Bowl run was aided by the Patriots being forced to field their third-string defense in the second half of the 2007 AFC Championship game…not to mention Rex Grossman being Indy’s best player in the Super Bowl.
4. As defensive coordinator in Minnesota, his top-ranked defense was 0-3 in the playoffs.
5. His teams are notorious for losing playoff games to inferior competition.  Aside from a couple of losses to the Patriots, you could seriously say that almost all of Dungy’s 10 playoff losses as a head coach have come at the hands of teams that were worse than his team.
6. His teams are always unprepared in some way for a playoff game.  How do you allow an opening kick-off return for touchdown in the Super Bowl by the only player on the other team that has any chance of hurting you?

So, sorry to have to be the only one not singing Dungy’s praises this week, but I have to tell the truth.  The dude is an awesome regular season coach and nothing more…as a coach.  As a man, he is truly one in a million and I envy the strength with which he perseveres every day after the death of his son.  Every time I think about how he has been able to do that, and start thinking about my son and how I would handle it…well, let’s just say that it gets a little dusty in the Mack house.

I am sure that Colts fans are going to riot when they read this.  They will yell and scream and use language consistent with their breeding and intellect…and not one of them will be able to offer anything other than rage, which sadly does not trump facts.  But as for Dungy himself, I think that some d-bag blogger pointing out that he is not a big-game coach is something about which he could not care less.

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Dear Mr. Jones:

I am a lifelong Cowboys fan, and until recently, a proud one.  I lived and died with every playoff moment throughout the storied history of the Dallas Cowboys, and there have been many, many such moments.  But as I gear up for Conference Championship Weekend, I notice something missing…your team.  They are watching this game, and all the playoff games, from home like just about everyone else…and it is YOUR FAULT.  The Pittsburgh Steelers, the closest thing you have to a competitor in terms of popularity and organizational success, are hosting the AFC Championship game, and the Cowboys are watching from home.  The Arizona Cardinals and Philadelphia Eagles, who could never be confused with legitimate threats to the tradition and success of the Cowboys, are both still playing.  Do you notice anything about those 3 teams I just mentioned?  That’s right, all three of those teams beat the Cowboys in an embarrassing fashion this season.  And I DO mean embarrassing…and it is YOUR FAULT.

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