So, after a long, drawn-out argument with myself, I decided that I would let the stats decide my Super Bowl pick.  I am going to feel sick, either way…as my hatred for the Steelers and Reverend Warner are both well-documented.

When thinking about how I wanted to look at the stats, I tried to be ever-mindful of the “you can make stats say anything you want” phenomenon.  I wanted to be true to the stats and maintain a one-for-one statistical relevancy…that is, one stat is no more important than another.  However, I wanted to make sure that if one team enjoyed a significant advantage over the other in a particular category, then that would be accounted for also.  Kind of like having two levels: “Advantage, Steelers” and “Strong Advantage, Steelers”.

As I thought about it more and more, I realized that such a system already exists in the world of professional sports.  It is called the Ten Point Must System.  So, here are the rules:

• If one team’s advantage is < a 5% improvement over the other team for a particular stat, then each team gets 10 points for that stat
• If the advantage is 5.01% to 20.0%, then it is a 10-9 win for that stat
• If the advantage is > 20%, then it is a 10-8 win for that stat
• I did not include every single stat, only those that could potentially affect a game — for instance, I did not include “Total Plays from Scrimmage”, since the Cards scored with greater explosiveness and would have lost a point with no real justification for it…and I included not only the Fourth Down Conversion Percentage, but also the number of Fourth Down Attempts, as that is a direct reflection of the size of the onions of the head coach, which could absolutely have an impact on this game 
• These are only regular season stats — I understand that these teams, especially the Cardinals, have been exceeding their performance in the regular season thus far in the playoffs, but the manner of performance over a full 17-game season is the truest measure we have of objective statistical significance

So, without further ado, here are the stats.

So, there you have it.  The Steelers should win, but not by a significant margin.  I would suspect that the Steelers’ advantage is probably more significant than 7 points out of over 400 total.  There are a few certain things you could point to, particularly the fact that the Steelers enjoyed a 10-8 margin of victory in both Strength of Schedule and Wins…that alone is probably enough to account for more than a 4-point swing…but that would quickly become a slippery-slope argument, trying to arbitrarily assign weights to individual stats.  So, a stat is a stat is a stat, and the largest advantage you can gain on one stat is 2 points.

So, even though a case could probably be made that the first two stats (Strength of Schedule and Wins) should provide more than a 4-point Steelers advantage, the fact remains that the Steelers’ total advantage here is 7 points, and 4 of them are from those two stats.  In fact, their advantage after the “Team Stats” section is 5 points.  The Cardinals have a clear advantage on offense and probably special teams as well, especially when it comes to field position…but the Steelers’ advantage on defense is the most significant discrepancy in the whole chart.  No surprise there, eh?

So, unfortunately, we are back to the same question that everyone has been trying to answer for 2 weeks…can the Arizona offense get something going against the Steelers defense?  I don’t think they can.  In fact, I am willing to go so far as to say…they absolutely cannot move the ball with any regularity against the Pittsburgh defense. 

But I also think that Arizona has been playing very opportunistic defense throughout the playoffs and can probably keep the game close.  So, I guess then there are two questions that you have to answer.  First, which QB do you want late in the 4th quarter, Ben or The Reverend?  Ben has proven time and again that he can be effective in the 2-minute drill.  Granted, it is because the prevent defense is the only defense he can confidently attack, but hey, you can’t argue with the stats, right?  Then again, if Ben is a master at carving up a prevent defense, then what would you call The Reverend Warner against a prevent defense?  Grand Master?  Well, against the Steelers defense in a 2-minute situation, you would think that he could be effectively called The Tackling Dummy…but then again, we would have thought the same thing against the Philly defense from the opening whistle, right?

Enough about those two overrated QBs — the real question is this — in a close game, which coach do you want, Tomlin or Whisenhunt?  If you said Tomlin, you either have a Terrible Towel in your house or know nothing about football.

So, I guess there are two possibilities, as I see it — a fairly easy Steelers win, or Pittsburgh-Seattle, part two…both defenses doing enough to keep their team in it and both offenses looking horrible.  In case two, you would think that it would come down to coaching…but who in their right mind would have chosen Cowher over Holmgren in Super Bowl XL?  Well, if you throw aside the horrible officiating, there was one coach that had the testicular fortitude to make the call that won that game…and his name is Ken Whisenhunt.

What about the possibility that no one is talking about — a Cardinals blowout?  I think they might need a little help on that one, but what if James Harrison breaks his leg on the first series of the game?  Do you think that would change the ability of Arizona to pick up the blitz and hit receivers over the middle?  Do you think everyone holding a prop bet ticket with the words “Total Yards” and any combination of Arizona/Warner/Fitzgerald/Boldin/Breaston instantly starts spontaneously dancing?   Just something to think about.  Everyone is talking about the possibility that the Steelers could turn this game into a replay of the first Dallas-Buffalo Super Bowl, but no one is mentioning the possibility of a blowout the other way.  If I were to pick the game that way, I would certainly be the only one to do so…and with minimal risk…if it happens that way, I am an internet genius…if not, I am just a dude that is a part-time sports blogger and should stick to his day job.

There is something to be said for the fact that going against the popular pick is the way to go…and everyone is saying that the Cards have become the popular pick…but the line has not moved at all for 2 weeks.  So, the money is evenly split, despite the “everyone likes the Cards in this game” phenomenon…and I think that’s because it is the perfect line for this game…and also the stupidest line I have ever heard of.  What is wrong with having some balls and going with 6 1/2 or 7 1/2?

OK — we are just talking about the same stuff that other idiots have talked about now.  Let’s make the pick.

Steelers lead 27-13 late, Arizona gets a garbage TD to make the final 27-20…and everyone gets their money back.

Super Bowl MVP – Santonio “Dime Bag” Holmes

One Final Thought — we need to start a grass roots movement to get rid of the phrase “catch the ball at its highest point” and replace it with “catch the ball at HIS highest point.”  The only way to do this is for everyone who hears someone mention that this Sunday, or ever, to briefly mention that not even LeBron James could catch a long pass at its highest point, as that is some 25 feet off the ground or more.  So, please take matters into your own hands and abolish this stupidity — I have been trying personally for years to stamp this one out, and I have been singularly unsuccessful.  I need your help.

Popularity: 25% [?]