After a marginally effective performance last week, I am back to .500 on the season.  Normally, I would be downright embarrassed, but this has just been a horrible year for gambling on the NFL.  All kinds of unexpected results, 11-point underdogs winning outright and overall weirdness.  A .500 record is nothing to sneeze at this year.

Since this is the second recent week that I have mentioned Quincy Carter, I thought I would post a photo of Quincy back when he had potential.  Look how intent he is on finding the right open receiver to underthrow.

Here are the picks.  As always, home team in ALL CAPS.

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As predicted, I followed up my killer week in Week 9 with something considerably less pretty in Week 10.  In fact, you could say that Week 10 for me was downright UGLY, if it weren’t for the fact that it was actually one of my better weeks on the year.  Yep – I am actually not too displeased with a week where I ended up 2 games under .500.  That’s what a weird year it has been for NFL gambling.

So, lots of enticing numbers this week, at least in my book.  Lots of teams not getting near enough credit and lots of teams getting way too much.  I am not so bold (or stupid) to predict another killer week or anything, but some of these lines are just jumping out at me.

One quick item of note – I was talking to lots of Colts fans on Friday, and they told me that the only team that scares them is New England…but either Indy or New England will pummel anyone from the NFC.  Also, the consensus pick was New England and Minnesota in the Super Bowl.  That’s right – Indy fans were picking the Patriots…and the look on every single one of their faces when they said it gave me so much satisfaction that I heard Billy Crudup’s voice in the background every time.

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Everyone is destroying Bill Belichick for going for the win on Sunday night.  No one, and I mean NO ONE has even mentioned that the ref who came up with the spot kind of blew the call.  I am not one for conspiracy theories, but watch the play one more time and tell me if all of these things do not happen: 1) Faulk starts to make the catch very clearly past the yardage marker and gets hit immediately by Melvin Bullitt 2) Faulk slightly bobbles the ball 3) that bobble happens with Faulk’s ENTIRE body between the ball and the guy who came in with the spot.  Like I said, I am not here to spout conspiracy theories…I’m just saying that I might have noticed 1 or two anomalies on that particular play and the officiating of it – oh, and it was the first time I have ever, in over 35 years of watching the NFL, seen a single official actively favor the defense on a 4th down play.  Ever.  Kind of weird, no?

Now, about the call itself, I aim to prove (or disprove – it really could go either way, and here in paragraph  2, your guess is as good as mine) that it was the correct call according to the information that Belichick had available to him at the time.  Wait – I guess I should clarify…I am talking about the call to go for it on 4th down.  NOT the play call.  The play call was historically bad, no matter what the numbers in the following paragraphs say.

Here is my beef with Belichick – assume that the statistics dictate that you absolutely have to go for it on 4th down in that situation.  You are playing against a franchise that has ALWAYS been soft against the run.  The defense has 2 ends that love to get up the field and wreak havoc on passing plays.  Your go-to 3rd and 4th down back is averaging 6.6 yards per carry on the game.  What play do you call?  Every person reading this that has watched more than 50 NFL games just said either “draw” or “screen”.  Kind of a no-brainer, huh?  Should be able to pick up 2 yards on one of those plays pretty easily in that situation, right?

Don’t get me wrong – I love to see Belichick fail…but the only 2 people in the league that I love to see fail even more are Donovan McNabb and Peyton Manning (Jay Cutler is quickly moving up this list)…plus, I live in Indy and am surrounded by Colts fans on a daily basis.  It’s kind of rough for 11 months of the year, but except for one bizarre season, I have always had January to do all my talking…and I will have January once again in 2010…take that to the bank.  Plus, I am from New England and always had a soft spot for the Patriots until they got good and their fans turned into the the biggest a-hole NFL fans in the world outside of the state of Pennsylvania.  Anyway, I have some definite mixed emotions about this game and this play.

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Well, I am not normally one to brag, but things have been so bleak picking games this year, that when I do have the chance to tout my skills of prognostication, I need to do so from the rooftops.  So yeah, I crushed it last week.  Granted, such a great performance (10-3 against the spread), only brought me to .500 for the season, but a week like that is so rare that you just need to enjoy it while it lasts.

Unfortunately for all of us, I think Vegas got crushed last week by lots of people that bet the same way I did, or at least somewhere close to it.  That’s the only justification I can find for this week’s lines.

I don’t want this to turn into bashing a certain national morning talk show on the radio arm of a certain sports conglomerate, but I am a Steve Czaban fan.  Sometimes I wish he was a little less condescending, but he is by far the best option available here in Indy for the morning drive…and whenever I start to feeling Czaban is a pontificating ass (it’s quite rare – maybe once or twice per year), I just put on The Herd for about 30 seconds (that about all I can stand) and I am instantly reminded what true boorish “let’s just bitch about everything and tell everyone how cool we are” talk radio…if I thought for one second that Cowherd wouldn’t relish the comparison, I would compare him to Donovan McNabb’s biggest fan.

Anyway, the reason why I bring up Czaban is that he has Brandon Lang on every Friday, and I normally get to hear at least the first part of the segment.  Czaban obviously agrees with me that there is just something weird about the lines this week (e.g., Denver –3.5 @ Washington), like Vegas felt as if they really needed to put up an intentionally skewed line, just to get some play on a certain side of it.  So, Czabe asks Lang about it right out of the gate, with a well-worded and open-ended question, and Lang, in his inimitable style, did not shy away from letting everyone know how stuff works.  He said that the Vegas books will do that all the time, especially when they are kind of worried that if they put the line up there that their research dictates (e.g., Denver –12.5 @ Washington this week) then there will be zero action on a particular side of the line (e.g., Denver has looked like ass warmed over the past couple of weeks, Kyle Orton remembered he is Kyle Orton and the seeds of doubt about the latest NFL Wunderkind are being sown and no one would expect them to cover a big number on the road right now), so they come up with a skewed line just to generate more action.

 

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Anyone following has no doubt noticed that I actually posted an article in between my Week 8 and Week 9 Picks articles.  Sure, it was a post in which I essentially recycled some e-mail threads with buddies that are fans of crappy NFL teams that had a little bit of hope heading into the season (i.e., NOT Oakland, Kansas City, St. Louis or Detroit).  I wish I had some buddies that were Tennessee fans – I would be very interested to hear their take on Jeff Fisher and what has happened this year.

Anyway – here are the picks.  As always, home team in CAPS.  I am feeling a little punchy this morning, so I am going to include a sentence or two about each game.

Last Week:  5-8

Season:  54-61-1

ATLANTA (-10) over Washington – Washington is just dreadful, Atlanta is due to reestablish themselves as a playoff contender after 2 solid defeats on the road, and Matt Ryan is nails at home.  This line really cannot be high enough.

Arizona (+3) over CHICAGO – The Reverend should look a little more settled against the depleted Chicago defense than he did against Carolina last week.

CINCINNATI (+3) over Baltimore – Cincinnati is still not getting any respect.  The fact the Baltimore is favored in this spot is kind of ridiculous.

Houston (+9) over INDIANAPOLIS – I don’t think the Colts defense will be able to hold Houston’s running attack under 250 yards.  They still might cover with the quick-strike offense, and it is a month ending in B-E-R, so betting against Manning is still a dicey proposition.

Miami (+11) over NEW ENGLAND – I heard on the radio today that the Dolphins coaching staff is working with Ronnie Brown on his throwing motion and squaring up and throwing from a stationary position, instead of always throwing on the move.  Whatever Brown does, and however he does it, the Patriots still don’t have the athletes to shut down the Dolphins offense enough to cover this spread.

Green Bay (-10) over TAMPA BAY – Aaron Rodgers is making quite a name for himself feasting on horrible teams, and the Packers defense, which is better than they have sometimes shown this season, should get healthy against first-time starter Josh Freeman.

Kansas City (+7) over JACKSONVILLE – can we just call this game “The Toilet Bowl” and move on?  I don’t think anyone but all 12,000 Jacksonville fans in attendance will care.

Carolina (+13) over NEW ORLEANS – The Saints seem to be falling into a somewhat disturbing rhythm of playing just well enough to win…and Vegas has not caught on yet.  Plus, Carolina might actually have a tiny bit of momentum after upsetting Arizona last week.  I don’t like the Panthers to win outright or anything, but they can cover this line…or lose by 30…any bet on this game really is a guess.

SEATTLE (-11) over Detroit – All of the adversity Seattle has faced this season will be forgotten for 3 hours this week.

San Diego (+6) over NY GIANTS – The Chargers have a crummy run defense and the Giants like to run.  The Giants have a crummy pass defense and the Chargers like to pass.  I like the Chargers to actually win this one outright.

SAN FRANCISCO (-5) over Tennessee – Chris Johnson (and the Niners run defense) is the only reason why this line isn’t 14+…which is good because I would be very scared of a big number here, on either side.  I am not scared of San Fran being able to cover 5 points, though. 

Dallas (+3) over PHILADELPHIA – Yes, I am picking another road dog.  That’s 7 if you are counting.  I am kind of scared of this game as a Cowboys fan.  Dallas is better at every single position on the field, but Wade Phillips and Tony Romo can never seem to beat the Eagles when it matters.  I think Witten is the difference and has a monster game here.

DENVER (+3) over Pittsburgh – This game should be quite close and potentially come down to coaching.  I’ll take the guy who can coach over the guy who’s idea of coaching is to just call passing plays with a crappy offensive line and hope Ben can make a play and rely on the defense to handle the rest.  Three years from now, when Ben starts getting that Troy Aikman circa 1998 look in his eyes after a hit, you can blame Mike Tomlin’s coaching, Steelers fans.

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I recently had the following e-mail exchanges with some buddies of mine.  One of them is a dyed-in-the-wool D.C. sports fan, and the other one is rocking Cleveland colors year-round.  When you read through the two exchanges below, you will understand the title of this blog post.  You know that your NFL team sucks when you have lifelong fans writing these kinds of things about their team.

What a complete and utter shame for both of these once-proud organizations and their fans.

THREAD #1 – Cleveland

MACK -

Just wanted to make sure you were not still up on the ledge after watching Sabathia and Lee start Game 1 of the World Series for their new teams.

ROB -

I have come to grips that Cleveland is trying to have a real-life remake of "Major League".  They could be in the SAME ROTATION!!! AUUUGH!!!  OK, maybe I havent come to grips with it…

MACK - 

Ha ha.

I met Matt Dery today.  Not sure if you know him.  He is a big deal in the sports radio biz up in Detroit and a bona fide Cleveland sports fanatic.

ROB -

It’s good to know that there is another Cleveland fan still out there!  The Browns are truly testing my resolve at this point however.  I don’t understand why you throw Quinn out there when the game is completely lost thanks to Mr. "10 QB rating" Anderson.  I don’t understand why the OC isn’t under more scrutiny. 

If you have 2 Qbs with completely different styles and you can’t get anything going with either of them, maybe your offensive gameplan just plain sucks.  Still proving that I wasn’t delusional when I thought that this past offseason for the Browns was the worst offseason in history that did not involve the Raiders.

NOTE:  Rob didn’t even wait for me to fire back before responding, as the Browns finally decided to make a move.  In their inimitable style, they (of course) made the wrong move…but at least they did something, right?  Well, not according to Rob.

ROB -

We fired our GM?? NOW??  Did Pioli suddenly become available or something? I mean, I didn’t like the hire that much, but how can a GM mess things up in 9 months?  I guess trading away everyone who can catch a pass puts your neck out there if you go 1-7…Oh well.  Its not surprising, I guess; when you hire the coach first, the GM has no power walking in the door.  Its not going to fix the problem, though.  Say it with me, FIRE DABOLL.  Fire him, then re-hire him so you can enjoy firing him again. 

Apparently Jamal Lewis announced he’s retiring at the end of the season;  hopefully James Davis will recover from IR and show something.  If not, we are actually going to be worse next year.  I haven’t gotten to hear much about Cleveland, but I wonder why Robiskie is on the bench when he was considered the most polished, "pro-ready" WR in the draft.  I smell a bust. At least Massaquoi is showing some promise.

Sorry, I’m rambling.  I just cant process what firing a GM after the trading deadline is going to do for the team…my head hurts.  Maybe the new guy will pay Cribbs and we’ll actually keep someone with talent on the team.

FINAL THOUGHT -

And THAT is how you know, if you are a Cleveland Browns fan, that your team sucks right now.

THREAD #2 – Washington

MACK -

Have you had the Skins bonfire yet to burn all your gear in the yard?

They have provided 4 separate teams with their first win, in only 6 games played.  That has got to be some kind of record.

In case you haven’t checked — here are the remaining opponents for Washington:  Philly (great time to get them after putting up a stinker against Oakland), Atlanta, Denver, Dallas, Philly (again), New Orleans, Oakland (might have a chance in this one), NY Giants, Dallas, San Diego.

Looking at that schedule and knowing what you know about your team after 6 weeks, you would gladly take a 4-12 record right now if it meant you would not have to watch them potentially go 2-14, huh?  Go ahead — you can say it.

JJ -

We’re definitely staring 2-10 right in the face.  The organization is a laughingstock right now.  I’d be happier with 2-14 than 4-12 except for the fact that the Redskins will undoubtedly botch the pick, so what’s the use in having a good draft pick?

The Redskins will go into next year’s draft (if the current personnel regime is in place) thinking that we need a quarterback and draft somebody like McCoy or Bradford, when what we really need to do is get an entire offensive line.

You may recall that the ’skins of the 80’s and 90’s won with three quarterbacks that are not hall of famers.  The thread through the skins Superbowls were the Hogs.  It boggles my mind that our organization can’t remember that.

I know one thing — we’re not losing this week. (WASHINGTON HAD A BYE THIS WEEK)

MACK -

You know that I love to gloat.  You remember what a total dick I was during the 15 out of 16 Dallas over Washington run that started in the mid-90s.

Even I cannot bring myself to pile on.  I feel bad for you and the rest of the Skins fans out there…at least this year I do.  You are right — laughingstock is the best word for it.

I am continually amazed by the rich douche-bags that can successfully run their other businesses but can’t seem to run their team…or, more importantly, hire the right guys to run their teams and leave them the hell alone to do their job.

Anyway — at least you have Ovi.  Go Caps!

NOTE:  Then, the unthinkable…the hope of a city takes a step back…

MACK -

Sorry about Ovi.  It just keeps getting better for DC sports fans, huh?

I am up late doing some work with the absolutely embarrassing and an overall shitastic idea L.A. sports center in the background, and the last 2 things I saw on my screen were the impromptu Daniel Snyder press conference where he said he felt bad for the fans but offered no hope and then the report about Ovi missing at least 2 weeks.

Sorry — I don’t have any better words than that — and I know I should be gloating right now, but as a lifelong Red Sox fan, I cannot bring myself to do it.  Instead, let me offer you hope in the fact that I threatened to completely give up on the Red Sox organization numerous times in my life, and my perserverance was rewarded with 2 titles in 4 years.

Keep the faith, buddy.

FINAL THOUGHT -

I am not sure who I feel worse for, Cleveland fans or Washington fans.  Wait a minute – I am a Cowboys fan and bona fide Steelers hater.  I hope Washington stays in the dumper forever, and as for Browns fans, the enemy of my enemy is my ally.

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