Well, I am not normally one to brag, but things have been so bleak picking games this year, that when I do have the chance to tout my skills of prognostication, I need to do so from the rooftops.  So yeah, I crushed it last week.  Granted, such a great performance (10-3 against the spread), only brought me to .500 for the season, but a week like that is so rare that you just need to enjoy it while it lasts.

Unfortunately for all of us, I think Vegas got crushed last week by lots of people that bet the same way I did, or at least somewhere close to it.  That’s the only justification I can find for this week’s lines.

I don’t want this to turn into bashing a certain national morning talk show on the radio arm of a certain sports conglomerate, but I am a Steve Czaban fan.  Sometimes I wish he was a little less condescending, but he is by far the best option available here in Indy for the morning drive…and whenever I start to feeling Czaban is a pontificating ass (it’s quite rare – maybe once or twice per year), I just put on The Herd for about 30 seconds (that about all I can stand) and I am instantly reminded what true boorish “let’s just bitch about everything and tell everyone how cool we are” talk radio…if I thought for one second that Cowherd wouldn’t relish the comparison, I would compare him to Donovan McNabb’s biggest fan.

Anyway, the reason why I bring up Czaban is that he has Brandon Lang on every Friday, and I normally get to hear at least the first part of the segment.  Czaban obviously agrees with me that there is just something weird about the lines this week (e.g., Denver –3.5 @ Washington), like Vegas felt as if they really needed to put up an intentionally skewed line, just to get some play on a certain side of it.  So, Czabe asks Lang about it right out of the gate, with a well-worded and open-ended question, and Lang, in his inimitable style, did not shy away from letting everyone know how stuff works.  He said that the Vegas books will do that all the time, especially when they are kind of worried that if they put the line up there that their research dictates (e.g., Denver –12.5 @ Washington this week) then there will be zero action on a particular side of the line (e.g., Denver has looked like ass warmed over the past couple of weeks, Kyle Orton remembered he is Kyle Orton and the seeds of doubt about the latest NFL Wunderkind are being sown and no one would expect them to cover a big number on the road right now), so they come up with a skewed line just to generate more action.

 

If gambling on sports were legal in this country, and one were to undertake such behavior, I suspect that it would be very easy to talk yourself into a line like this, either way.  To wit – Denver is due for a bounce-back performance after the last 2 weeks and should have NO problem covering a 3.5 number at Washington, yet Washington has just enough veterans on defense that might be sick of losing and there is just enough doubt about Denver in general and Kyle Orton in particular that Washington should be able to keep it close and maybe even eke out a win.  There – see how easy that was?

One last point about the Thursday night game this week – given the way he pissed and moaned his way out of Denver, is there a single player that you would rather see fail than Jay Cutler?  I mean, it is downright enjoyable to watch him do his Rex Grossman imitation this year, right?  I think just about everyone has their own favorite players to watch fail (mine are McNabb and Peyton Manning – if you hear distant laughter coming from the Indy area Sunday night, it will be me), but every single NFL fan that does not love the Bears and is not a Vandy grad and is not from Santa Claus, Indiana, probably has Cutler in their top 5 “guys I most want to see playing like Quincy Carter" list.  I will never get tired of watching him continue to throw the ball to the wrong team…it makes me smile.

So, here goes nothing.  For every line I could clearly read last week, there is a line this week that scares the bejeesus out of me.  As always, the home team is in CAPS.

Last Week:  10-3

Season:  64-64-1

SAN FRANCISCO (-3.5) over Chicago.  One of those crummy games that it would have been better if I never watched…except for the fact that I got to watch Jay Cutler walk off the field with his shoulders slumped after an interception FIVE TIMES.  I still smile when I think about it.

TENNESSEE (-7) over Buffalo.  People are talking about the Titans winning out and sneaking into the AFC playoffs at 10-6.  I think that is too ambitious, but only marginally so.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they put together a 6-2 second half and finish with something to build on for 2010.

New Orleans (-13.5) over ST. LOUIS.  This line is scary, since I don’t think there is any way this is a 13-point victory for New Orleans…that’s too mundane.  I am expecting either a narrow New Orleans victory or a 48-10 affair.  Don’t worry, this is not the only line like this on the board this week.

MIAMI (-10) over Tampa Bay.  This is another scary one.  Tampa Bay does not have the athletes to stop the Wildcat, which I personally like because it will keep the Wildcat around and in the news for at least another week.  I am not sure if an NFL team will ever win a playoff game running the Wildcat more than 4 or 5 times (are you listening, Jason Garrett), but it sure puts butts in the seats, eh?

Detroit (+17) over MINNESOTA.  This is another one of those skewed lines.  Has laying a big number with Brett Favre EVER been a good idea?  Then again, the Lions offensive line, though sometimes serviceable this year, could quite easily give up 11 sacks and be the main culprit in a laugher.  I just don’t know.

Jacksonville (+7) over NY JETS.  Another road dog.  And riding David Garrard to boot.  I must not want to have back-to-back good weeks.  But the Jets have just been horrible lately, and I think Jacksonville has just enough talented players to keep this one close.

Cincinnati (+7) over PITTSBURGH.  Nothing in this game would surprise me…a blow-out (either way), an OT thriller, James Harrison going Kimo “Lee Harvey” von Oelhoffen on Carson Palmer’s knees, Hines Ward taking out a crowbar and whacking a defender (and not getting flagged, of course), whatever.  Everything is in play in Pittsburgh this week.

Denver (-3.5) over WASHINGTON.  Washington is historically bad.  Denver needs to bounce back from the last two weeks.  Before Week 1, this had all the makings of a good grudge match, with both sides of the Champ Bailey – Clinton Portis deal getting to show their mettle…but the way things stand right now, don’t be surprised if Champ Bailey wins this game all by himself…and Portis is out suffering from Post Traumatic Bell-Rung Syndrome.

Atlanta (-1.5) over CAROLINA.  What a surprise, another line that I wouldn’t go near, if betting were legal in this country.  Atlanta can stop the run, so Jake Delhomme might have to do something.  Whenever something is required of Jake, the something he delivers is throwing the ball to the wrong team.

OAKLAND (-1.5) over Kansas City.  Both these teams are horrible, but Oakland has better athleticism across the board and is playing at home.  Sorry if you expected something more, but this game is not even worthy of thinking about long enough for a proper analysis.

Dallas (-3) over GREEN BAY.  I am sure Aaron Rodgers will not be taking his linemen out for a nice dinner after this one.  If they could not protect Rodgers against the Tampa Bay defense, how do you think they will do against Ware, Spears and Ratliff this week?

Seattle (+9) over ARIZONA.  Another road dog.  Another line I hate.  Two more wonderfully mediocre salary-cap-era teams.  What more can I say?

Philadelphia (+1) over SAN DIEGO.  Amazing what a difference a week makes, huh?  Before Dallas punked the Eagles and the Giants choked the game away against the Chargers, this line is Philly –7 right?  That’s how I am betting this.  Philly should have a pretty easy time in this one.  This just in – Andy Reid has challenged whether or not the sun rose this morning; doesn’t he know he is risking a time out?

New England (+3) over INDIANAPOLIS.  The Colts have been narrowly escaping against inferior teams.  They cannot run the ball and cannot stop the run…both very bad things when you are playing a playoff-caliber team…especially when that team is led by a coach that loves to make your all-pro quarterback make this face.

CLEVELAND (+11) over Baltimore.  I was up in Cleveland all day on Saturday.  While I was there to speak at a conference for tech geeks, the futility of Cleveland sports was a popular topic, as was the current state of the Browns and also some preemptive lament at the departure of Lebron for a larger market if they do not win it all this year.  All those Browns fans could really use a good result here – unfortunately, I think they best the will get is the moral victory of covering the number.

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