As predicted, I followed up my killer week in Week 9 with something considerably less pretty in Week 10. In fact, you could say that Week 10 for me was downright UGLY, if it weren’t for the fact that it was actually one of my better weeks on the year. Yep – I am actually not too displeased with a week where I ended up 2 games under .500. That’s what a weird year it has been for NFL gambling.
So, lots of enticing numbers this week, at least in my book. Lots of teams not getting near enough credit and lots of teams getting way too much. I am not so bold (or stupid) to predict another killer week or anything, but some of these lines are just jumping out at me.
One quick item of note – I was talking to lots of Colts fans on Friday, and they told me that the only team that scares them is New England…but either Indy or New England will pummel anyone from the NFC. Also, the consensus pick was New England and Minnesota in the Super Bowl. That’s right – Indy fans were picking the Patriots…and the look on every single one of their faces when they said it gave me so much satisfaction that I heard Billy Crudup’s voice in the background every time.
Here is what I feel is significant about all of that. No one even mentioned the defending champions, and no one even mentioned the team with the second-most Lombardi trophies of all time – you know, the team every single expert picked to win the whole thing last year. I won’t dwell on it too much, but my prediction of Dallas and Pittsburgh in the Super Bowl is looking more and more like that is how it’s going to happen…provided Jason Garrett has realized, along with everyone else in the world, that if Dallas can get back to having a balanced attack and not putting the game on Tony Romo’s narrow shoulders, there really isn’t a team that can play with them in the league right now.
Like I said – just a passing mention of it this week. Don’t worry, I will get louder and prouder about that Super Bowl prediction as the calendar rolls on and it all comes to fruition. Here are the picks for this week. As always, home team in ALL CAPS.
LAST WEEK: 6-8-1
SEASON: 70-72-2
Washington (+11) over DALLAS. This is a division game and Washington looks like they might actually have enough pride (I know – who knew?) to start playing hard. I don’t think the loss of Portis hurts too much, but the loss of Haynesworth is truly the difference in this game. Jason Garrett will find a way to not cover this line, though.
DETROIT (-3) over Cleveland. I will choose the home 1-8 team over the road 1-8 team here. That is all.
San Francisco (+7) over GREEN BAY. The Green Bay offensive line played a near-perfect game against Dallas. Unfortunately, it is still the same group of guys that played 3 mediocre games and 5 disgustingly horrible games prior to last week.
Pittsburgh (-10) over KANSAS CITY. Kansas City has the extreme misfortune of playing the Steelers after they lost to the Bengals. Nothing pisses off the Steelers more than losing to the Bengals. Oh, and KC also has the misfortune of being an absolutely horrible football team in all three phases of the game, so that might factor into the outcome of this one as well.
MINNESOTA (-10.5) over Seattle. Seattle just blew a big lead in the 4th quarter on the road to a team above them in the division. They are horrible and they cannot protect their QB in this game. I say “their QB” because the 2009-2010 Seattle Seahawks are so irrelevant that I do not care to even look up whether or not Hasselbeck is still in the lineup after his bad back or angina or gout or whatever other old-man disease he has this week.
Atlanta (+7) over NY GIANTS. I think that Atlanta is going to control the line of scrimmage in the game enough to not only cover the line but win outright.
New Orleans (-10.5) over TAMPA BAY. New Orleans has developed a bad habit of playing down to its competition lately. That will all be forgotten this week as they hang 40+ on the Bucs.
JACKSONVILLE (-9) over Buffalo. This line cannot be high enough. Maurice Jones-Drew is going to go all Chris Johnson on the Buffalo run defense. Seriously, they gave up 41 point the the Titans, for *@#%’s sake!
BALTIMORE (+1.5) over Indianapolis. Do not be surprised to see a much anticipated and rare appearance by the January version of Peyton Manning in November. The key is whether or not Flacco can complete enough passes to keep < 8 Colts run “defenders” in the box. If he can do that, it should be an easy win for the Ravens as Ray Rice and La’Ron McClain have a field day. If Flacco can’t do that, it might be tough for Baltimore, but I am not ready to bet against a QB from The University of Delaware that is starting for a playoff-caliber team in the NFL – are you?
ST. LOUIS (+9) over Arizona. The Rams hung tough against the Saints at home and almost eked out a win. No one will be confusing the Cardinals for the Saints any time soon. I like Stephen Jackson to singlehandedly keep Arizona from covering this number.
DENVER (+6) over San Diego. Denver is desperate, or at least they should be. I know that Chris Simms might not be the best QB in the league, but you never underestimate a desperate team at home. For example, even after last week, does anyone outside the State of Wisconsin think Green Bay is a better team than Dallas?
Cincinnati (-9) over OAKLAND. This line cannot be high enough. Bruce Gradkowski is getting the start. That really tells you all you need to know about the Raiders when Bruce Gradkowski is the best option they have at QB right now.
NY Jets (+11) over NEW ENGLAND. I might be the only one that thinks so, but I think Gang Green might be able to keep this one close. I don’t think there is any way that the Jets complete the season sweep of New England, but I think they can at least make a game of it.
Philadelphia (-3) over CHICAGO. I don’t think there is any surprise here. The Philadelphia defense makes its living off of quarterbacks with the poise and decision-making of Jay-Marcus Cutler (like that one – just came up with it this morning).
Tennessee (+5) over HOUSTON. I normally would bet against a team with something like the Keith Bulluck mess surrounding this game – a trash-talking guy on a typically mediocre salary cap team, who should never, ever talk trash, going against another mediocre salary cap team…but you absolutely cannot underestimate the Gary Kubiak factor in this game. This much we know – Kubiak IS going to blow this game for his team, it’s just a matter of when. Does he want to cut out the drama and spare his fans some heartache or does he want to give his fans false hope before kicking them in the groin at the end of the game? Luckily, it’s on MNF so the entire national TV audience can see it all happen live.
FINAL THOUGHT. Speaking of MNF – I hope we start getting some better games to give Mike Tirico something to yell about…because that little twit is going to yell anyway. I understand that it is his dream job and all, but let the game do some of the work, will ya? Not mention he is highly limited in his skills in the booth. I think the two things he brings to the table are an intense sports trivia repertoire and the ability to manufacture drama. One I can appreciate; one makes me want to stick an ice pick in my ears. I wish there was a way to ensure synchronization between the Westwood One audio feed and let Marv Albert and Boomer Esiason do the game on my TV. Speaking of the Westwood One feed, you have got to check out Marv’s picture on the web site…it is from at least 30 years ago. I don’t think he had even started biting hookers in the back yet when that picture was taken.
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