I got my Weekly JaMarcus prediction correct for the first time last week!  Although picking JayMaurcus Cutler against the Baltimore defense was not the most difficult decision I have ever had to make.  It kind of looked like a gimme…but I will damn sure take it after the year I have had.

Cutler’s stat line was pretty impressive, though: 10-27 for 94 yards, 0 TDs, 3 INTs, 2 SCKs, 7.9 QB Rating.  You read that correctly, folks: 7.9! 

Kind of pressed for time this week.  Thank you so much for all of the not-so-subtle reminders this morning, by the way.  I appreciate all of you for helping me realize that I had not posted my weekly picks column.  I do not know what I would do without you.  In all seriousness, though.  Thank you for reading, thank you for caring, and thank you for helping us spread the word.  We have tried to be different from the beginning, providing something of a much higher analytical quality that some of the other sports blogs, but still be at least mildly entertaining.  Anyway, call it me getting sentimental as we prepare for the passing of another year, but thanks everyone for reading this year, and stay tuned.  We have some very cool stuff planned for 2010, including the long-promised live web show and the even-longer-promised podcasts.  Hope everyone has a happy and healthy 2010!

OK, without further attempts at sucking up to the readers, let’s get on to this week’s picks.  As always, home team in ALL CAPS.

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It was another horrible week for me against the spread in Week 14.  It sure is a good thing that gambling is not legal in this country.  So, go ahead and click on the picture to the left, and you will see exactly why the Saints lost to the Cowboys…because let’s be honest – New Orleans is better than Dallas, and it is not even close.  Well, I guess the reason exposed in the picture – the fact that some idiot at ESPN.com, prior to the big game, decided it would be cute to call the Saints “America’s Team”, thereby pissing off the football gods.  There is only one “America’s Team”, and the way they have been playing late in the season over the past 13 years, no other team should even want that moniker.

As for my Weekly JaMarcus prediction last week, I should have seen what would happen to Josh Freeman against the Jets and Gang Green.  Although even I don’t think I could have seen it going so wrong that Freeman turned in this line:  14/33 for 93 yards, 0 TD, 3 INT, 3 SACKS and a QB rating of 12.1.  My predicted (Brady Quinn) was no slouch (48.1 QB rating) but there were SIX QBs (including Freeman) that played worse than Quinn. 

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This column is my first from my tree stand. I was waiting for a deer to come by and thinking about the Texas-UNC game later…and I decided to see if there was a decent Blackberry app for doing blog posts. I discovered that there are several such apps, so I can now share my atypical thoughts on the first ever basketball game played in Cowboys Stadium.
First of all, let me tell you that I am an unashamed dyed-in-the-wool Tar Heels fan. I read a biography of Dean Smith when I was 8 years old (summer of 1976). I followed the 1976-1677 Tar Heels team with great enthusiasm and cried my 9-year-old eyes out when Al Maguire and his Marquette team beat Carolina in the final. As a West Pointer, I get a little conflicted, and I am sure that most of my fellow Carolina fans would say that my hatred for Coach K lacks the proper amount of vitriol, but I just can’t go all in. My buddy Brian’s dad was Coach K’s roommate at West Point…and Brian went to Duke…and Coach K let Brian brings girls to dinner at his house as a first date. After hearing that Coach K served as a wing man for a kid half his age, based on a long friendship started at my alma mater, I can’t hate him as much as some of my brethern. My buddy Kinky, who has an entire basement full of Carolina gear and memorabilia, including some beautiful carolina blue seats from Carmichael Auditorium, can’t understand, or even fathom, this.
So about the game – as anyone that was reading my stuff back in March will tell you, I do not like Rick Barnes at all…and I am not crazy about Roy Williams, either.
Here is my main problem with both these guys, and lots of other guys as well – they almost never win a game they are supposed to lose. To me, that should be the single most important factor when measuring greatness in a college basketball coach. Anyway, Barnes and Williams are horrible at it. They win most of the games they are supposed to win, but that is it. On very few occasions have they ever inspired a team to rise up and beat a better team. By the way, other current coaches on this list include Calipari, Pitino, Donovan, Howland, Weber, and about 100 more I don’t have time to name.
Something historically special might happen during this game. Do not miss it.
You have one coach (Williams) that is notorious for losing every game he is supposed to lose, and another coach who has a horrible track record coaching in big games. Did I mention that both teams are ranked in the top 10 and that the game is taking place in Jerry Jones’ new football stadium?
It’s tough for me to say, but I think Williams’ near 100% success rate at losing when he is the underdog will supercede Barnes’ penchant for losing big games.
But you definitely want to be watching this one. These are two really good teams that should get up for the challenge and show their skill. Then, when you account for the fact that both coaches might be trying to give the game away, it should be riveting right until the end.
I think there are only 2 options: Carolina in a squeaker, or Texas in a route. You know Barnes will absolutely self destruct trying to coach his way to winning a tight game with this much hype around it. But I think Texas just has some freakishly good athletes and they are going to physically bully Carolina…I mean “knock them down and take their lunch money” kind of a bully. Games like this should go a long way toward toughening up Ed Davis and Tyler Zeller, so it’s not all bad news for my fellow Tar Heels fans. If those two guys can keep progressing and both stay in school, there might be another historically great team wearing Carolina Blue in the next couple of years.
When you factor in 2005 and 2009, that would have to be just about the best 10-year span in college hoops history that did not involve John Wooden, right?
Enjoy your day. I am hunting in a snowstorm, just about my favorite thing in the world that does not involve my wife and/or kids, so I know I will enjoy mine.
Since I might not get to blog about it beforehand, here is tonight’s NFL pick. Gimme Dallas at +8 …and they won’t need any of the 8. Just a hunch – Dallas wins outright.

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It was another 7-9 week last week.  I don’t know why I expected anything different.  It just seems like for every game that I crush it (sniff out some great value with a team clearly getting too much or too little credit), there is another game where something silly happens.  For instance, after Kansas City playing 4 separate playoff-quality teams tough at home, did anyone really think Denver, a divisional foe, was going to come into their house and dominate them?  Every single week, we get further evidence that this is just a crazy, crazy NFL season, in terms of gambling, if gambling were legal in this country, I mean.

As if picking the games was not bad enough, my inaugural pick for my Weekly JaMarcus Award (Chris Redman) was not even in the Top 10.  Sure, his QB rating of 56.5 is not exactly Pro-Bowl Caliber, but I definitely did not see the Denver defense causing Matt Cassel to turn in this line:  10-29, 84 yards, 0 TD, 2 INT, 14.6 QB Rating. 

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Sorry, but we are going with the abbreviated pick format this week, since I have a bunch of work to do for one of my moonlighting clients.

Here are the picks.  As always, home team in ALL CAPS.

Last Week:  7-9

Season:  86-88-2

NY Jets (-3) over BUFFALO.  Slide, Mark.  Slide.  Rex Ryan’s job is going to depend on your ability to learn how to slide within the next 12 months.

Philadelphia (-5) over ATLANTA.  Too many ATL injuries to keep this one close.

St. Louis (+9) over CHICAGO.  Supposed to be kind of chilly at game time.  Look for Steven Jackson to make the difference.

Detroit (+14) over CINCINNATI.  Cincinnati does not cover spreads.  They just don’t.

Tennessee (+7) over INDIANAPOLIS.  Speaking of good teams that cannot cover, I think Indy has covered like 2 spreads all year.  I am confident enough in an outright Tennessee victory here that I am not even going to look up Indy’s record against the spread so far this year.  It doesn’t matter.  Tennessee is taking this game.

KANSAS CITY (+7) over Denver.  KC has been pesky at home most of the time.  Not sure it makes any difference, but they have.

New England (-4) over MIAMI.  The Fish pay the price for what the Saints did to Darth Hoodie last week.

Oakland (+15) over PITTSBURGH.  Another game in the cold…and I just have a feeling that points will be at a premium.  I am scared of a late Pittsburgh defensive TD to cover the spread, though.  You know, Oakland driving in the 4-minute drill down by 10 points, and a Pittsburgh DB steps in front a Oakland receiver waiting for a Gradkowski duck to finally arrive and runs to pay dirt.

WASHINGTON (+10) over New Orleans.  Washington is a tough out right now, and I think they can push the Saints a little bit.

CAROLINA (-5) over Tampa Bay.  Carolina is really bad.  Tampa is something far worse.

Houston (+2) over JACKSONVILLE.  All 12,000 people watching this game will enjoy watching the Kubiak – Del Rio competition here.  “Jack, you think THAT was a stupid coaching move, watch THIS!”  “B.S., Gary.  Nobody comes in my house and tries to out-suck me at in-game coaching.  Watch THIS move!”

San Diego (-14) over CLEVELAND.  One of these teams is starting to get a certain bloom on them.  The other one is starting to smell a bit like raw sewage.  My buddy Rob (of the “How You Know When Your NFL Team Sucks” column a while back) had this to say about his Browns this week:  “After 2 straight point spread covers, I am running down the street looking for a car to set on fire.  Cleveland is in what I like to call a ‘victory recession.’  Covering the spread is as close to ‘signs of recovery’ as we can get right now.”

Dallas (+2) over NY GIANTS.  This game seems kind of weird to me.  I think that it will either be a very narrow Giants win, or Dallas will do to the Giants what they did to the Eagles a few weeks ago.  There’s no middle ground.  Dallas will not play a “medium” game, they will dominate or suck so bad the the Giants have a chance to win it at the end.

San Francisco (+1) over SEATTLE.  Yay, salary cap football!  Wake me when this one’s over.  I am SHOCKED this was not selected as the Sun. night flex game, aren’t you?

Minnesota (-3.5) over ARIZONA.  At this particular point in his rollercoaster of a short career, I am not sure Matt Leinert is equipped to handle Jared Allen.

Baltimore (+4) over GREEN BAY.  I think Baltimore is going to start putting a few things together after they were able to trick Dennis Dixon into giving away the game last week.

NOTES:  There sure are a lot of underdogs in my selections, eh?  And a whole bunch of ROAD dogs to boot.  I think this week is either going to catapult me back to respectability or solidify the worst NFL season in memory, in terms of Mack’s success against Vegas.

WEEKLY JAMARCUS: OK, we are launching a new feature this week – The Weekly JaMarcus award.  Whatever quarterback most closely resembles the poise and performance of JaMarcus Russell gets the award.  All QBs are eligible, including JaMarcus himself, should he ever win a starting job again or be playing behind a guy that gets injured.  During each Weekly Picks column, we will honor the prior week’s JaMarcus award recipient and try to predict who will be the winner this week. 

• Last week’s winner:  Jake Delhomme.  Check out his line against the Jets:  14/34 for 130 yards, 0 TD, 4 INT, 12.7 QB Rating. Jake’s value against the Panthers’ cap this year: $10.957 million.
• This week’s prediction:  Chris Redman.  Lots of injuries around him and having to deal with the Eagles’ defense. 

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