In a rare and unprecedented move, I chose the positive headline above over the negative headline I had in mind.  Make no mistake, though – just because it is not enumerated in heavy font above, the game is a no-WIN proposition for Team Canada.

I guess I will start by getting things right out in the open – if gambling were legal in this country, I would call my bookie just to tell him that I was scared of this game and wouldn’t touch it with a ten-foot pole, unless he had a tantalizing parley or multi-game situation where I could tease the line to something ridiculous…if gambling were legal in this country.  Of the 4 general possibilities, I would say that only 3 are realistic – either team in a rout or Team USA in a tight victory.

Let me clarify that for a second – Team Canada is absolutely incapable of winning a close game in this situation, and who can blame them?  There have been lots of situations in sports where certain guys or certain teams have been under considerable pressure – every single one of those situations pales in comparison to what the Canadians will be feeling on Sunday.  Let me say it again, just so we all understand – the pressure being felt by every single member of Team Canada on Sunday will be greater than the pressure felt by any sports team or figure in any competition in history.  I really don’t think that is an exaggeration…I think it is fact.

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Well, it’s finally happened – we have gotten the 2010 version of the RPI bracket up and running.  For a few reasons, all kind of geeky, we hit a couple of snags.

Then, the first version of the bracket had a couple of significant anomalies in it.  Since it is only our second year, and probably only about the 25th time that we generated the bracket, we didn’t mind taking a quick look at the algorithm to see what we could see.  In case you are interested, we made a slight tweak to it.

So, we are once again poised to (hopefully) help college basketball fans see exactly how the selection committee screws over teams from the non-BCS conferences.  I know, I know – big surprise.  Everyone knows that it is going on, so what’s the point?

Well, the point is that we can, with our proprietary algorithm and bracket, not only quantify the level of the screw-job, but we can tell exactly which teams, based solely on the data, got screwed over…and by how much.

We have a high level of confidence in our algorithm, and the key metric that it spits out for all 347 teams in Division I, the Tournament Index (T.I.).  It is a completely objective jumping-off point for comparisons between and among teams. 

As mentioned on the RPIBracket.com site, there is no room for any bias whatsoever – no big conference bias, no program tradition bias, no revenue generation potential bias, etc. – just the data.  And we don’t just do that for tourney qualification, we do that for seeding as well.  For instance, if you look in our current bracket, you will see that Michigan State is a 10 seed, despite being ranked #14 in the polls.  This is because MSU has lost 2 games against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, and their February record was 2-4.  Those happen to be 2 things that our algorithm does not like.  Plus, the Big Ten is not very strong this year compared to other conferences…so you have Ohio State with a 5 seed in our bracket, even though they are a Top 10 team, according to the polls.

While it is a great bonus that there are 2 Big Ten teams that our bracket is not giving respect, that was not our intention.  Besides, there is risk with any system.  For instance, Tom Izzo is capable of elevating his team way beyond what they should be capable of.  Thad Matta, on the other hand, is capable of losing a first round game in the tournament to a grossly inferior team.  Seriously, he is a contender for this year’s Rick Barnes award…although with Barnes himself in the mix, it is tough to see someone else stepping up (down?) and “coaching” their team to an early exit with the same level of proficiency exhibited on a year-in, year-out basis by Rick Barnes.

At any rate, the 2010 version is now live.  It is not perfect, but please feel free to check it out and chime in.  Based on the information in the algorithm, it’s definitely a good basis for comparing two teams, and I am more than happy to share the generalities of the data, if not the algorithm itself.  Also, unlike anyone that calls themselves a bracketologist, I am receptive to criticism and have even tweaked the algorithm in the past based on clearly presented arguments from readers and fans.

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First things first, I like Bob Costas.  In fact, except for a couple of weeks every 2 years, I REALLY like him.  We get his radio program on the weekend here in Indianapolis, and I will often listen to it while I work my way through the honey-do list.

Costas is great at what he does and there is so seldom a nit to pick – but he totally screwed the pooch the first night of the Olympics (not the opening ceremonies, the next night).  OK – I have to take a slight detour here to ask you – unless you are a Canadian, how absolutely precious was Wayne Gretzky’s face during the mechanical failure at the opening ceremonies?  Thinking about it as I wrote the last sentence, I giggled like a school girl.  Team USA could win gold in every event and that would still be my favorite moment of these Olympics.  Then again, Canadians just plain piss me off…and I know I am not the only one.

OK – back to Bob Costas.  Here is the background – he was talking about Apollo Anton Ohno’s quest to tie Bonnie Blair for the most medals (six) all-time by a winter games athlete from the United States.  Just for a minute, let’s remember that Ohno has done it in one fewer Olympic games than Blair.  It was actually kind of a nice piece, and a decent repartee between Costas and Collinsworth, who are quite good together and a pleasant surprise.  Everything was fine until Costa brought up Eric Heiden.

Costas, as he is wont to do, especially during the Olympics, tries to keep things interesting, while also using some words that must make him feel superior to what he imagines to be his average viewer.  Unfortunately, he does not possess the required eloquence to do so with anything but fleeting success, and it often rings hollow with me…especially since I have actually heard him use, and mispronounce, more than one big word during all of the Olympic games he has covered.

Anyway, while discussing some of the best American athletes ever in the winter games, he mentioned Heiden and his 5 medals being tied with Ohno entering these winter games.  So far, so good.

Then, Costas said the following: “Of course, with Heiden, all 5 medals were gold, and in the same Olympics, which is downright Phelpsian.”  Kudos to Bob for coming up with a new and stupid word to honor Michael “Are You Holding” Phelps.

Here is the problem – you could almost say that the performance by Michael Phelps in Beijing was Heiden-esque…except for the fact that Phelps barely eked out a win in just about every single medal-winning swim.  If he had been done swimming and sitting on the edge of the pool, talking on his cell phone, with no shortness of breath as the other swimmers finished the race, then, and only then, could you say that he, even for one small moment, started to approach the performance of Eric Heiden in Lake Placid.

So, Costas got it dead wrong.  Hopefully, he was just trying to use a cute word that he made up and wanted to stay “contemporary” for the younger viewers, or the ones too stupid to dig farther back into their brain than a couple of summers ago.  I certainly hope that he is not so completely out of touch with Olympic history that he doesn’t know that Michael Phelps had an amazing summer games, but it wasn’t anything even close to the domination of Eric Heiden in 1980.  Picture this – 5 gold medals (still the only speed skater to win all 5 over a career, and he did it in a single Olympics), 4 Olympic Records, 1 World Record…and he didn’t need a special suit to help him set those records…just the tree trunks masquerading as his legs. 

I understand that Phelps has offered his brand of domination over 2 Olympics, while Heiden only did it once, but Heiden was blowing dudes up, while Phelps was just winning.  When you are having the kind of conversation Costas was trying to have, it makes a difference…and he got it dead wrong.

It’s always something small like this that gives me the hates for Costas, but his radio show is just so damn good that I am sure I will be back on the Costas fanboy list within a month.  But until then, that little dude is on thin ice with me…and thin ice is not something you want when you are trying to have a winter Olympics in a city where it usually rains just about every day in February.  Friggin’ Canada…

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First things first – who [expletive deleted] dat!  My wife has informed me that we no longer have to move.  The fact that Manning was (or at least should be) one of the biggest goats is just that much sweeter.  Oh, don’t worry, there is plenty of blame to go around.  Don’t forget to give the Saints all the credit in the world, but the Colts sure wilted under the bright lights, huh?

I guess we SHOULD start off on a positive note.  Drew Brees was ON.  And the Colts decided to get in the prevent defense at the start of the 2nd quarter (more on that later), so he just picked them apart all night after that.  And don’t get me started on Sean Payton.  He reminded everyone what Jim Caldwell is – a rookie coach.  And how about that onside kick?  Balls of steel, coach.  Balls of steel.  The one common characteristic of just about every coach in the Parcells tree…and the one thing usually in short supply for coaches from the Marty Schottenheimer coaching tree (like Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell, for instance).

OK – enough of that rubbish – let’s get NEGATIVE!  There is so much blame to go around the Indy side of this game, I don’t even know where to start.  I could easily start at the top and talk about a family that took a team away from a city, or talk about a team president that has made an entire career out of building teams that were just good enough to come in 2nd place (except for the one time his team got to play Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl), or talk about a decade’s worth of coaching staffs that seemed to have their teams less prepared the bigger the game (except for the one time they got to coach against Lovie Smith in the Super Bowl)…but that is kind of the low-hanging fruit of this argument.  I’ll just start with the current coaching staff and work my way down.

So, how should we slice up the blame for this loss?

Jim Caldwell – 40%. Man – there is just so much he did wrong; where the heck should I start?  How about the fact that Jim Caldwell’s onions, or lack thereof, quite possibly cost his team the Super Bowl.  When I talk about the lack of onions, I am basically talking about 2 things Jim Caldwell did, in an ACTIVE fashion, to sabotage his team’s efforts in the most important game of his coaching career.  First of all, with a defense that had just been on the field for a grueling 8-minute drive (culminated by a HUGE, momentum-shifting stop on 4th and Goal), decided to run the ball 3 times, risk not getting a first down, and gave the ball back to Drew Brees, who predictably led a FG drive to end the half, with Screech Hartley absolutely crushing yet another big kick.  The next time where I thought Caldwell should not have been too proud of his testicular fortitude was when he decided to do his Rex Ryan imitation and abandon a running game that was being very effective at getting big chunks of yards, prolonging drives, saving the legs of the Colts defense and putting pressure on the Saints defense to boot.  Yeah, sounds like a great time to hit the panic button.

If those were the ONLY 2 things Jim Caldwell messed up, that would have to go down as one of the worst coaching jobs in Super Bowl history, right?  Well, we are not even close to done with Caldwell.  His special teams were atrocious.  The fact that every single Colts player was not waiting an extra tic on every kickoff with a known gambler on the other sideline is absolutely inexcusable.  The fact that either a) Jim Caldwell did not personally talk to every member of his kick-off team’s front line of defense at least once per day to make sure that they knew to look for the fake and just concentrate on the fundamentals if it comes your way – stay calm, look the ball in and get it up against your body as soon as possible or b) he DID do that and his players had so little respect for him that they were totally unprepared when the situation came up in the biggest game of the year.

Another thing I have a huge problem with in this game from Caldwell is that he did not recognize that Manning was off.  He didn’t notice that there was a little extra flutter to his throws.  He didn’t notice that there was a little bit of extra chop in Peyton Manning’s feet in the pocket – not quite the “happy feet” we used to see, but enough to be a cause for concern.  He didn’t notice that his throws themselves seemed to be a little bit less accurate than normal.  He just plain did not know enough about what he was seeing, or did not have enough gumption to make a change and start to shade the mix of plays toward more runs and less passes.  Why the hell would you want to do that?  It was only intuitively obvious to even a casual observer that the Saints were completely unprepared for the Colts’ running game in the first half.  But hey, the head coach and his entire staff missed it.  Yeah – that sounds like a Super Bowl caliber performance, huh?

I am strongly considering if 40% is really enough blame for Caldwell and his staff.

Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne (30%). It was an absolute disgrace that these 2 perennial Pro-Bowlers both took the same play off.  No look off from Manning – just staring down Reggie the whole time.  No crisp route by Reggie – just going through the motions.

If you have the game on DVR, go ahead and watch that drive again.  When you get to the play that happened 2 plays before the TAINT, watch what Tracy Porter does just before the snap.  By that point in the game, he had already started to recognize when that play was coming, and had already started to open up his hips to the inside of the field and take MULTIPLE steps toward the inside of the field just before the snap to put himself in the best position possible.  Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but aren’t there people in the Colts’ organization that are paid to notice that kind of stuff?  Aren’t 2 of those people named Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne?

I would say that you can probably pile about 2/3 of the 30% blame right on Manning’s shoulders.  As discussed several times on this blog and countless hundreds of times with Colts fans all over Indianapolis, Peyton Manning is the first ever “all-time great” that would rather throw the ball away than take a hit to make a play.  No matter if it is a meaningless Week 6 game or the Super Bowl.  I used to really fault Manning for not being able to toughen up during big games, but after years and years of watching QBs, I am starting to think that you are either wired one way or the other.  Manning cannot play tough when the situation dictates any more than Brett Favre can play it safe when the situation dictates.

That’s why, if I need to win 115 regular season games in a decade, Manning is my guy, but if I need to win one game, an all-important game, then I want someone else.  Sure, I do not think any of these names will stand next to the name “Peyton Manning” decades from now, but if I had to win one game right now, there are a few QBs that I would take over Manning in a heartbeat – they are, in no particular order: Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez (that’s 3 and we aren’t out of the AFC East yet), Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees.  So, that’s nine.  Out of respect for the Manning family, I will not put Warner or Favre on the list.

Make no mistake, Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs ever…it’s just that people need to start qualifying that statement, with a “regular season” or “during months that end in B-E-R”.

One more bit of heartache I have with this play.  If anyone other than Manning made that throw, no one would even be mentioning the fact that Reggie Wayne gave up on the play.  It would just be “can you believe that QB blew the Super Bowl for his team?”  Could you imagine if Tony Romo had made that throw?  We might never hear from him again.  Instead, everyone is trying to find someone other than Manning to blame.  Here is what I say to those folks – you gave that dude credit for all 14 regular season wins, at least 10 of which were flat-out chokes by the other team…so you have to give him the blame for this one.  You can’t have it both ways.

So, Peyton Manning choked away the Super Bowl for his team.  He had the opportunity to solidify his place in history or be just another dude with a .500 playoff record, and his skills, composure and decision making in the big moment limited him to the latter.

Hank Baskett – 15%. Just like someone from your coaching staff told you at least once every single day between Conference Championship weekend and Super Bowl Sunday – “look out for the fake – Sean Payton loves to mix it up and call for bold plays; if it happens, just stay calm and remember what we have been talking about for 2 weeks – stay loose, watch the ball into your hands, and get it tucked up against your body as soon as possible.”  Oh, no one ever told you that?  Are you sure?  C’mon – every high school kid that watches the NFL on Sunday knows that Sean Payton is from the Bill Parcells coaching tree and loves to sack up and call onside kicks and fake punts and double reverses and everything else right?

Make no mistake, the fact that Baskett was leaning back, and even taking a step back away from the play BEFORE the kick, and the fact that he was surprised at all by the play, is a lack of leadership on the Colts sideline.  The fact that he completely blew it and shrunk during the biggest chance he had to make an impact on the game – well, that’s on him.  Maybe he was thinking about that classy wife of his.

Colts Defense – 15%. I have gone back and forth on the responsibility of the Colts defense in all of this.  At first, I thought that they should take a lot of the blame.  I am fairly certain that this was because Clint Session was the only Colts player to take any personal responsibility for the loss at all on Sunday night.  I mean, no one else in the entire organization took any responsibility…none…not one little bit.  Anyway, some time after that, I started to think about how the Colts defense actually held the Saints offense to 24 points, which is not too bad.

Then, I remembered that the Colts decided to start playing the prevent defense in the 2nd quarter and didn’t stop until the game was over.  During the game, I came up with a name for the Colts defense they were playing on Sunday – instead of their usual “Cover 2”, they were in a “Cover Zero”.  That’s how many Saints receivers they were covering on every pass play – ZERO.  Combine multiple open receivers on every play with a guy (Drew Brees) that was putting just about every single pass within 6 inches of the perfect spot, and you have a recipe for disaster.

There is a good reason why the Colts defense is last on this list.  They did a pretty decent job.  There is also a good reason why there are on the list at all.  They looked pretty solid all year, but they played one of the easiest schedules in the entire league from a defensive standpoint.  Supposedly, Jim Caldwell made huge changes in the defense, and all anyone in Indy wanted to talk about was the team speed they had on defense this year, but they did not have in the past.  But as it turns out, if you take a very soft defense, make it smaller and quicker, you end end up with a soft defense that has speed.  The problem with that approach is that it can be very effective against the AFC South but tends to get exposed by playoff-caliber teams – kind of like the Jets did before Rex Ryan hit the panic button and the Saints did for 3 quarters of the Super Bowl.

I also have a huge problem with the Colts actually playing the prevent defense for 3 quarters of the Super Bowl.  That is basically a conscious decision by everyone involved that they do not have the personnel and/or toughness to make a game of it playing a stand-up defense.  Instead of trying to stop the Saints and make some plays, they decided that they would rather invest their time trying to slow the Saints down.  You know what – it worked.  They slowed down the Saints offense and held them to 24 points.  Too bad that their coach and QB let them down.

Anyway, there is the analysis.  It was kind of a meandering semi-rant, but I think the numbers are about correct.  The loss was most directly a reflection of which head coach was ready to do what it took to win the game and which head coach was just trying not to lose the game.

When you take that atrocious coaching display, throw in a typical big game performance from Manning, add in one play that Reggie Wayne decided to take off, mix in the fact that they had to rely on Hank Baskett to make a simple play, and a soft defense trying to slow down a big, physical offense.  It’s a recipe for disaster.

And I didn’t even mention the fact that the Colts organization decided to commit one of the most heinous examples of a team thumbing their nose at the process for qualifying for the NFL playoffs in Week 16 of the regular season.  So the new stats are the same as the old stats – no team has ever pulled some crap like that and won a Super Bowl, and after my interview with karma last week, I doubt it will ever happen.

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Here at MackOnSports.com, we had a very special treat recently.  We had the esteemed privilege of getting an exclusive interview with karma.  Here is what he had to say.

MoS:  Welcome to Indianapolis.  It’s nice of you to stop by.
Karma:  No problem.  It was a logical place to stop on my way to Miami.

MoS:  Miami?  Do you mean the Super Bowl?
Karma:  Yes I do.  You don’t think think they can have this Super Bowl without me, do you?

MoS:  I guess not.  Besides, you are on some kind of roll, huh?  Nice work over conference championship weekend, my friend.  That was truly an epic performance.
Karma:  Well, it started out kind of tough.  I had my eye on the Colts, and then, as soon as Jets got down by 3 points and Rex Ryan started to panic, I just had to step in.  What a horrible coaching decision — easily the worst one I saw the entire year.  I feel bad for all the second-guessing of Rex in the national media, though.

MoS:  Maybe you have been busy in other parts of the globe, but there had been no second-guessing at all.  No one outside of New York City has had anything to say about it.
Karma:  What?  Are you kidding me?  Man, that chaps my ass!  I jumped all over Ryan and decided to ride him down in flames.  How does no one know that I made him blow that game?

MoS:  Everyone is just talking about how good the Colts are.
Karma:  Ha ha.  They are one heck of a team.  Not sure it’s going to matter in Miami, though. [grins]

MoS:  Whatever do you mean?
Karma:  Oh, just a feeling.  You know that no team that ever thumbed their nose at the process of qualifying for the playoffs has ever gone on to win the Super Bowl, right?

MoS:  Oh, yes.  I am definitely aware of that, but this Colts team seems to be impervious to your efforts.  I mean, just about every opponent of theirs has choked the game away in some fashion this year.  Then, the one team that should have been poised for karmic revenge, the Jets, ends up choking the game away too, just like everyone else.  I have my doubts that anyone can beat the good luck the Colts seem to be having this year.
Karma:  Well, it WAS kind of a tough call for me, but I could not resist Rex Ryan.  Plus, I had decided that I was going after Brett Favre and Brad Childress with everything I had…and if the Jets ended up in the crossfire, so be it.  Let’s not forget the team that enabled that absolutely atrocious "you can’t play for anyone in the NFC North for one year" move by the Packers.  Was there anyone surprised that Favre ended up with the Vikings, his first choice all along, one year later?  That really cannot happen without the Jets really pissing me off along the way, you know.  I was really planning on leaving them alone, and giving the Colts what they have deserved ever since Week 16, but then Rex Ryan started to panic and I could not help myself.

MoS:  What a shame that the Colts are getting all the credit for that one.  Clearly an oversight.  What about the Vikings and Saints?  You didn’t have anything to do with that one, did you?  [laughs out loud] Man, I really thought I could make it through that one with a straight face.
Karma:  [Grinning from ear to ear] To quote a brilliant writer I once knew — whatever do you mean?

MoS:  Oh, I don’t know — 6 fumbles, 3 of them lost, and 2 INTs…rookie kicker looking like Adam Vinatieri circa January 2002…it kind of looks to me like it had your fingerprints all over it.
Karma:  Well, modesty prevents me from taking too much credit, but I will say that I did not intercede at all on the last play from scrimmage for the Vikings offense – the 12-men-in-the-huddle call was just a shortcoming in the Vikings coaching staff (big surprise, huh) and the last throw, well that was just Brett being Brett.  It’s his signature move; it is what he has done with greater skill and consistency than anyone in the history of the league — throwing the ball to the wrong team.

MoS:  What about all those fumbles?  Surely you had something to do with that, right?
Karma:  I can neither confirm nor deny anything along those lines, but I will say this – thank goodness for Brett Favre.  I had given up on the Saints by that point.  I believe that my exact words were: "if you STILL can’t win with all these damn fumbles I have given you, then you deserve to lose!"  I mean…it appeared that the Saints defense did an excellent job getting in good position and going for the ball while tackling…[laughs out loud]  Now it is my turn…just like you, I thought I could make it through that statement with a straight face.  I was incorrect.

MoS:  Fair enough.  Happens to the best of us.  So, do you have anything planned for the Super Bowl that we should be aware of?
Karma:  Well, I will not say that I have anything planned, and I will not say that I do not have anything planned, but there is one team that is playing for an entire city that got kicked in the teeth by a natural disaster of biblical proportions just a few short years ago, and the other team decided to actively interfere with the playoff process in the NFL.  It certainly would appear that I have an opportunity to get involved once again.

MoS:  Yes, but you have had a slightly up-and-down record in Super Bowls lately.  I understand the Pats-Giants and David Tyree, but what about the Steelers last year?  I mean, didn’t they break every rule in the book, and didn’t they have 3 separate players commit eject-able plays during the first 3 quarters?  How could you misfire on that one?
Karma:  That game turned out as I had planned.  Kurt Warner told his children that he would buy them a puppy if the Cardinals won the NFC Championship.  Well, he reneged on that promise.  Breaking a promise to a child trumps anything the Steelers did, or could do, during the course of that game.

MoS:  What about the Colts-Bears game a few years ago?
Karma:  Lovie Smith made a conscious decision to ride Rex Grossman in that game.  It really was out of my hands after that.  I liked the fact that, as he did so many times before, Tony Dungy did such a poor job preparing his team that they gave up an opening kickoff touchdown to the only player on the Bears that was capable of hurting the Colts at all.  That really was a classic move by Tony.  Truly reassuring.  I will miss him coaching in the NFL.  The lack of preparedness of his teams in the biggest games was one of the only constants in an ever-changing world.  While he is truly an amazing man away from football, it’s kind of tough to get past all the playoff futility he experienced as a coach.

MoS:  So, I have to get back to talking about this year.  What can you tell us about the game?
Karma:  Well, I can’t really say anything prior to the game, but I can guarantee that if you find me celebrating in the wee hours of Monday morning, I will say but 4 words:  Ain’t I a bitch?

MoS:  Celebrating in the wee hours?  Are you talking about Bourbon Street?
Karma:  [Smiles]  This interview is over.

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In case you don’t recognize the guy in the picture, his name is Gregg Williams, and there is a reason you do not recognize him.  He had a highly unremarkable stint as the head coach in Buffalo, but is a no-bull defensive genius.  If you know about the NFL, you are familiar with his work.  Just in case you don’t know about the NFL, here is a quick recap of recent Gregg Williams performances.

His defense has, in the past 2 games, put a physical beating on 2 great quarterbacks (Kurt Warner and Brett Favre) by destroying 2 of the best offensive lines in the league.  His defense never sacked Brett Favre, and only sacked Warner once, but they DID hit them each about 4,700 times…all the while without drawing a single holding call against the Vikings offensive line OR the Cardinals offense line.  Actually, there WAS one holding call against the Cardinals, but that was on a running play.

Let’s forget for a minute that it is absolutely INEXCUSABLE that there was not a single holding call on either of those offensive lines with all the pressure the Saints were bringing.  Actually, it’s kind of tough to forget that – especially with the Saints having to go up against the Colts’ offensive line this weekend.  According to the statistics, the Colts’ offensive line must be the best in the history of the entire league.  I think the fact that they have protected Peyton Manning so well all year and hardly ever been called for holding would mandate that all of those guys should be in the hall of fame, right?  Or maybe there is just an edict from the Commissioner of the NFL that Peyton Manning should be protected at all costs.

One more minor point – doesn’t the Commissioner know that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in history at getting rid of the ball at the first sign of trouble?  See how I am mellowing with age?  It would have been so easy to present the other side of the argument – Peyton Manning is the least likely quarterback in history to stay in there and take a hit to make a play, which kind of makes him a huge sissy, but I would probably be a sissy too if there was $100 million at stake by doing so.  Sure, couple that fact with the mandatory Peyton Manning quick snap to either force a penalty or a time out, and you really have to question the guy’s manhood, right?

I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say that Archie Manning, who took so much abuse by not only having the “gunslinger” gene but also playing for some pretty bad teams, has advised both of his sons against being a tackling dummy.  The difference between the two sons is that Eli appears to know when taking a hit is worth it, and Peyton just does not ever take a hit, even when his team needs him to take one, no matter what.  There is no way, under ANY circumstances, that Peyton Manning would have been able to orchestrate the David Tyree Helmet Catch.  As soon as one of those Patriot defenders got near him, he would have thrown the ball away or lied down on the field. 

You cannot argue with the success Peyton Manning has had with that approach over the years, but there is also no argument to anything I have just written.  I will say it again – Peyton Manning could not have sublimated his fear long enough to make the play that Eli Manning made on the throw to David Tyree.  I have been watching the guy play for over 10 years, and he has never, ever demonstrated the toughness (and, quite frankly, a little bit of gunslinger stupidity as well) required to make that play under any circumstance.  I have watched him throw the ball away and lie down in the 4th quarter of playoff games down by one score – it’s just not in his makeup to make those plays.  He sure as hell seems to make every other play possible, so I guess there is no requirement for being tough and standing in there to take a hit if you don’t have to.

Anyway – because of those facts (yes, Colts fans, they are FACTS – please save your vitriol for an argument you can win) – Gregg Williams is the single most important person in this game.  If he can force an appearance by Happy Feet Manning, like Bill Belichick did all of those times, then the Saints will win.  If Gregg Williams can get that done, I will not be surprised.  He has done it the past 2 games against two quarterbacks that are tough and like to hang in the pocket and have offensive lines just as good as the Colts.  The Cardinals absolutely could not take advantage of that pressure with the running game, and got blown out.  The Vikings DID take advantage in the running game, and should have won easily.  But Brad Childress decided to run up the score against Dallas, so you ended up with about 57 fumbles and the greatest player in history at throwing the ball to the wrong team doing what he does better than anyone in history.  But the Vikes kind of had their way in the running game.

So, that brings us to the #2 key to this game…the Colts running game.  Joseph Addai is a serviceable running back…Donald Brown is a certifiable home run hitter.  Both of them have trouble hanging onto the ball in big games.  But, if they can put together a few long runs, that might just give Manning a split second longer, so he can find an open receiver instead of throwing the ball away.

The last key to the game, for me, is Reggie Bush.  He will not have an “OK” game.  He will be a non-factor, or he will be the Super Bowl M.V.P. – and nothing in between.  The Colts always seem to be giving up a big play on special teams (nice to see Jim Caldwell carrying on the proud tradition of Tony Dungy in this area), and Reggie showed what he is capable of against the Cardinals.  He has also shown what he is capable of at the other end of the spectrum way too many times for Saints fans that have been questioning Reggie ever since the Saints picked him in the first round.

So, in my mind, those are the 3 keys to the game.  Can Gregg Williams make Peyton Manning throw the ball away, or maybe even have one of his players get a hit on Manning?  Sorry Mister Commissioner, I didn’t mean to say that.  I will not let it happen again.  I know that I will never, ever get a media credential again if I do not retract that statement, so I do so unequivocally.  I received the “Manning, Favre and Brady are Untouchable” memo and must have forgotten about it for a second.  I don’t know what I was thinking.

The other 2 keys are the Colts being able to run the ball enough to keep the Saints’ defense from pinning their ears back, and the ultimate X-factor – Reggie Bush.

Far more “qualified” folks than myself have provided all kinds of analysis about this game.  Almost all of them have been talking out of their posteriors, because the three keys to the game, as I have just described them, are complete mysteries.  You could see any one of those 3 things happening on either end of the pendulum.  The Saints could easily hit Manning even more than they hit Favre, or never get to him at all.  The Colts running game could go for 200 yards and 3 TDs, or 25 yards…and the Colts could win in either of those scenarios.  Reggie Bush could end up with 4 TDs and the most impressive Super Bowl in history for someone not named Doug Williams, or he could just be another guy that is out there trying to make a play.

I might be going out on a limb here, but I am thinking that Reggie is going to be the man, just like he was in the Rose Bowl…and when it comes to doing what it takes to win and taking hits and scrambling for first downs, Peyton Manning is not Vince Young.  So, here is the prediction:

New Orleans   34

Indianapolis    27

Super Bowl MVP:  Reggie Bush

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