Here it is, the latest weekly podcast, now with extra background noise!

Actually, sorry about that, folks…but I was forced to record the podcast in the truck on my way to work.  I tried messing with some of the levels but couldn’t quite get it to reduce the noise without making me sound like I was underwater.

Recording the podcast on the way to work should be an aberration.  Enjoy.

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After a week off to attend to some family matters, we are back on schedule with the weekly podcast.  We also have some slightly better quality, thanks to a new microphone, and some better production values.  If you are listening to the stream on the blog, make sure to comment on our weekly features (Dude/Douche, King for the Day, etc.) — let us know what you think of the ones we have, as well as suggest any new ones.

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Just in case the AL’s overall winning record in Interleague Play wasn’t enough to convince you…

Just in case the AL’s winning percentage of 0.566 over the past 5 years of Interleague Play wasn’t enough to convince you… (in case you were wondering, a 0.566 winning percentage in 2009 would have you leading the NL Wild Card race)

Just in case the NL’s last All-Star Game win coming during Derek Jeter’s Rookie Year wasn’t enough to convince you…

Just in case the AL’s winning 7 of the last 11 World Series wasn’t enough to convince you…

How about John Smoltz and Brad Penny both lighting it up in the National League after they were JUSTIFIABLY deemed to be unworthy of taking part in the American League playoff push?

Just for good measure – let’s take a quick tour through the 4 of the past 11 World Series that were won by the NL, in reverse chronological order.

2008 – Phillies 4, Rays 1.  Was anyone seriously surprised when Cinder-Rays-la woke up with an ALCS-sized hangover and was so bloated she couldn’t fit into her glass slippers any more?

2006 – Cardinals 4, Tigers 1.  Everyone forgets how the Tigers pretty much handed the Cards 3 of the 4 wins in this series by playing in a manner which would have caused them to run extra laps during little league (errors, baserunning blunders, etc.)…I think the Tigers lineup was hands-down better at every position except 1B…David Eckstein was the Series MVP for cryin’ out loud!

2003 – Marlins 4, Yankees 2.  Josh Beckett owned the Yankees…I shamelessly giggled and dared to dream of what could happen if Theo could ever find a way to get him into a Red Sox uniform.  Ask any Red Sox fan – even back then, when Mike Lowell was a past-his-prime overpaid bum that Boston had to take off Florida’s hands just to get Beckett – it was a small price to pay to get the Yankee killer on the roster.  Of course, Lowell worked out OK, too.

2001 – Diamondbacks 4, Yankees 3.  Someone forgot to tell Arizona that everyone (with the possible exception of Red Sox fans) was rooting for the Yankees after September 11, 2001.  Hey – on a side note – anyone heard from Luis Gonzalez lately?  Take a look at this close-up of him after the game winning hit and shout out the first word that comes to your mind.  I’ll bet it rhymes with hair-droids.  If you yelled out something different, go ahead and click on it to see the larger version.

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UPDATE:  The daily prediction, using the most current relative statistics for the competing teams, based on their performance until this point in the season and their relative schedule strength vs. the other competing teams in their league, can now be seen here:  http://www.mackonsports.com/blog/mlb-wild-card/

OK – it has been forever since I posted anything.  I apologize for the inconvenience if my revenue-generating life does not coincide with your desire to read my half-baked theories.

I will now predict the AL and NL wildcard winners.  I am going to do so with something crazy and completely out of place in any sports argument – facts and logic.  I am going to look at the remaining schedules of the teams competing for the wildcard in each league.  At this point in the season, wins and losses are worth roughly 0.004 percentage points, in terms of winning percentage, and they are going to decrease slightly with each passing day.

That kind of makes the math pretty easy – if you are competing against a team with a better record, you will need to overcome at least half of the difference, to the tune of 0.002 in the winning percentage for each game you are behind.  We then coupling this simple math with some that is even simpler – what is the weighted average of the winning percentage of the teams you have left to play in 2009?  If you don’t know what a weighted average is, look it up.  If you have a more difficult schedule than a team you are chasing, you will probably also have to make up at least half of that difference as well.

Later today, I am going to set up a page where you can see the current prediction on a daily basis.  For right now, we are just going to look at the predictions through the games of last night, August 30, 2009.

American League

Boston (Wild Card)

Texas (4.5 GB)

Tampa Bay (9.5 GB)

Seattle (12 GB)

National League

Colorado (Wild Card)

Atlanta (1.5 GB)

San Francisco (2 GB)

Florida (3.5 GB)

Chicago (4.5 GB)

I am anxious to see if the statistics hold up over the course of the next 30+ games.  On the surface, you would kind of expect this kind of performance – Boston running away with the AL Wildcard and a dogfight up until perhaps the last weekend in the NL.

Speaking of the last weekend – here are the series that weekend that have the potential to have an impact…in order of the probability that they will matter to the playoff picture.

Rockies-Dodgers.  Tough last series for the predicted Wildcard winner.

Giants-Padres.  These first two are very intriguing.  Could you imaging San Fran being within a couple of games of Colorado, looking at San Diego, knowing that Colorado had the Dodgers to contend with?  In Dodger Stadium with that crowd gearing up for the playoffs?

Braves-Nationals.  If the Braves can be close going in, there should be 3 guaranteed victories here.

Rangers-Mariners.  Both of these teams should be well-eliminated by this time, but if one or both of them is close to Boston, it could be interesting…except for:

Red Sox-Indians.  Just what the other AL Wildcard hopefuls need.  By the way, Boston has the easiest schedule of any potential AL Wildcard team.

Yankees-Rays. If we learned anything from The Matt Garza Game last October, we learned to never count out the Rays.  This might also be their last year before they can only pay one out of every 3 of their young superstars…they could be in “now or never” mode and how can you root against Joe Maddon?

UPDATE:  The daily prediction, using the most current relative statistics for the competing teams, based on their performance until this point in the season and their relative schedule strength vs. the other competing teams in their league, can now be seen here:  http://www.mackonsports.com/blog/mlb-wild-card/

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I had occasion to be in Chicago this morning and the local sports radio guys up there were positively giddy with the Peavy-to-the-White-Sox deal.  And they should have been.  It was reported that the Padres had actually called Peavy in to talk to him about it on Wednesday night…which basically means that the deal was in place and just required Peavy to waive his no-trade clause. 

Most of the experts are talking about a couple of key reasons for Peavy to invoke his no-trade clause and stay in San Diego:

- Peavy wants to stay in the National League

- Peavy wants to play for a contender

Obviously, neither of those two criteria apply to the 2009 Chicago White Sox, especially the second one. 

If winning cures everything, then the potential for winning will set Peavy free.  Here are some of the other things at play here:

- The Padres need to get Peavy’s salary off the books ASAP.  They are way over budget and the owner is going through a messy divorce, in which the Padres franchise comprises over 50% of the marital assets and is also the key bargaining chip.  They are in full-on fire sale / rebuilding mode.  Hey, at least this guy have a bona fide reason for the fire sale (I am talking to you, Jeff Loria, you heartless, soulless, fan-destroying douche-bag). So, Peavy is gone before the trade deadline, we know that for a fact.

- The Padres want 4 good prospects in return for Peavy.  There are only a small handful of teams that have the prospects to support that kind of trade without depleting the farm system and/or have enough money to replenish the farm system fairly quickly.  I don’t quite have time to do all the research necessary to come up with the whole list, but it probably looks something like:  Red Sox, Cubs, Braves, White Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Rays, Phillies, Dodgers.

- Peavy has around $60 million of guaranteed money coming to him under his current deal.  The list of teams that can support that kind of financial commitment is even shorter than the list of teams in the bullet point above this one.  Once again, just a slightly educated guess, but that list might look like this:  Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, White Sox, Phillies.  Notice anything particular about that list?  If not, you are kindly urged to check out the list of the largest media markets in the U.S. here.

So, it’s not exactly rocket science to figure out where Peavy might end up.  If he is firm on the National League thing, then he will probably end up with the Cubs…who have finally figured out how to win in a league without a salary cap when you are in a major media market.  Granted, they already passed on Peavy during the off-season for financial reasons, but they are far from done talking to Peavy about the prospect of coming to Chicago.

If Peavy is willing to relax the NL requirement to get himself to a contender, then he will be in New York or Boston.  I think Boston, with the injuries they have had to their pitching staff, and all the young arms they have in the minors, would be a perfect fit.

Sure, I am a Red Sox fan, so the overall premise of this blog post is merely to pre-gloat about the upcoming Jake Peavy trade in the next month or two.  Don’t go to sleep on Theo Epstein on this one.

So, just for kicks, let’s look at the potential playoff rotation for the Red Sox with Peavey in the mix, shall we?  Beckett, Peavey, Penny, Lester, Dice-K, Smoltz…wait, that’s 6…and we haven’t gotten to Wakefield, Buckholz or Masterson yet.  I have always wanted the Sox to be able to use Wakefield as a reliever in the playoffs.  Could you imagine being able to have him get up every couple of innings or so of a playoff game, see how the knuckler is reacting under the current conditions, phone in the results to Tito from the ‘pen, and only have Wakefield used when he will be most effective?  And what about having the ability to finish games like this: Masterson, Smoltz, Papelbon back-to-back-to-back…with Okajima available to put the occasional lefty to sleep in a pinch.

I think it might be safe to say that a Red Sox team featuring that kind of staff might have a better than average chance to win their 3rd title in 6 years.  Uh, as a Red Sox fan, I am pretty excited about that last paragraph, even if you take the name Peavy out of it.  In fact, if you are a Red Sox fan, read that last paragraph again, ignoring the word “Peavy” and remind yourself that the Sox have been accomplishing everything so far this year without Dice-K, Smoltz or an HR from Papi, except for the one he hit Wednesday night.

So, my feelings for the Red Sox aside, let’s assume that Peavy is going to end up with a contender that can provide the prospects required and weather the $60 million storm.  Unfortunately, at least for small market teams and their fans…the rich get richer…again. 

One last point…don’t go to sleep on Shallow Hal with this one, either. 

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As an homage to the public speaking concept of “Bottom Line Up Front”, or B.L.U.F., let’s start with the most important thing about the whole Manny Ramirez – Dodgers situation…Scott Boras is currently being out-maneuvered by Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti.  I’ll give you a quick second to read that one again.  Maybe one more time.  I’ll wait.

Make no mistake, Scott Boras has changed the game of baseball with his negotiating prowess.  I do not wish to use this forum to recount all the reasons why any change attributed to Boras is horrible for everyone associated with the game, except for Boras and his clients, and especially horrible for hardworking fans.  It really makes me angry to even think about it…I could only imagine my mood after writing that article.

Anyway, since I don’t have a heck of a lot of time to spend on this one, due to the recent launch of RPIBracket.com, I will keep it short and leave you with this very brief analysis.

I have a 4-year-old son at home that could never, ever, under any circumstances, be outmaneuvered, out-foxed, or out-anything-ed (except for being out-douched) by Frank McCourt and Ned Colletti.  Hell, I scraped some dog dookie off my shoe the other day that would stand on even intellectual footing with the current Dodgers brain trust (at least until you get to Joe Torre)…and somehow Mr. Super Agent is so far off his game that Manny is not playing ball yet for the only team that really wants and really needs him…and is, by the way, the absolute perfect situation for him.

I will always have a soft spot for Manny after all he did for me and my fellow Red Sox fans, but to see Boras floundering like this has got to be one of my best baseball memories since the shock and disappointment of “The Matt Garza Game” last October.

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