I had occasion to be in Chicago this morning and the local sports radio guys up there were positively giddy with the Peavy-to-the-White-Sox deal.  And they should have been.  It was reported that the Padres had actually called Peavy in to talk to him about it on Wednesday night…which basically means that the deal was in place and just required Peavy to waive his no-trade clause. 

Most of the experts are talking about a couple of key reasons for Peavy to invoke his no-trade clause and stay in San Diego:

- Peavy wants to stay in the National League

- Peavy wants to play for a contender

Obviously, neither of those two criteria apply to the 2009 Chicago White Sox, especially the second one. 

If winning cures everything, then the potential for winning will set Peavy free.  Here are some of the other things at play here:

- The Padres need to get Peavy’s salary off the books ASAP.  They are way over budget and the owner is going through a messy divorce, in which the Padres franchise comprises over 50% of the marital assets and is also the key bargaining chip.  They are in full-on fire sale / rebuilding mode.  Hey, at least this guy have a bona fide reason for the fire sale (I am talking to you, Jeff Loria, you heartless, soulless, fan-destroying douche-bag). So, Peavy is gone before the trade deadline, we know that for a fact.

- The Padres want 4 good prospects in return for Peavy.  There are only a small handful of teams that have the prospects to support that kind of trade without depleting the farm system and/or have enough money to replenish the farm system fairly quickly.  I don’t quite have time to do all the research necessary to come up with the whole list, but it probably looks something like:  Red Sox, Cubs, Braves, White Sox, Yankees, Mets, Angels, Rays, Phillies, Dodgers.

- Peavy has around $60 million of guaranteed money coming to him under his current deal.  The list of teams that can support that kind of financial commitment is even shorter than the list of teams in the bullet point above this one.  Once again, just a slightly educated guess, but that list might look like this:  Yankees, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox, Dodgers, Angels, White Sox, Phillies.  Notice anything particular about that list?  If not, you are kindly urged to check out the list of the largest media markets in the U.S. here.

So, it’s not exactly rocket science to figure out where Peavy might end up.  If he is firm on the National League thing, then he will probably end up with the Cubs…who have finally figured out how to win in a league without a salary cap when you are in a major media market.  Granted, they already passed on Peavy during the off-season for financial reasons, but they are far from done talking to Peavy about the prospect of coming to Chicago.

If Peavy is willing to relax the NL requirement to get himself to a contender, then he will be in New York or Boston.  I think Boston, with the injuries they have had to their pitching staff, and all the young arms they have in the minors, would be a perfect fit.

Sure, I am a Red Sox fan, so the overall premise of this blog post is merely to pre-gloat about the upcoming Jake Peavy trade in the next month or two.  Don’t go to sleep on Theo Epstein on this one.

So, just for kicks, let’s look at the potential playoff rotation for the Red Sox with Peavey in the mix, shall we?  Beckett, Peavey, Penny, Lester, Dice-K, Smoltz…wait, that’s 6…and we haven’t gotten to Wakefield, Buckholz or Masterson yet.  I have always wanted the Sox to be able to use Wakefield as a reliever in the playoffs.  Could you imagine being able to have him get up every couple of innings or so of a playoff game, see how the knuckler is reacting under the current conditions, phone in the results to Tito from the ‘pen, and only have Wakefield used when he will be most effective?  And what about having the ability to finish games like this: Masterson, Smoltz, Papelbon back-to-back-to-back…with Okajima available to put the occasional lefty to sleep in a pinch.

I think it might be safe to say that a Red Sox team featuring that kind of staff might have a better than average chance to win their 3rd title in 6 years.  Uh, as a Red Sox fan, I am pretty excited about that last paragraph, even if you take the name Peavy out of it.  In fact, if you are a Red Sox fan, read that last paragraph again, ignoring the word “Peavy” and remind yourself that the Sox have been accomplishing everything so far this year without Dice-K, Smoltz or an HR from Papi, except for the one he hit Wednesday night.

So, my feelings for the Red Sox aside, let’s assume that Peavy is going to end up with a contender that can provide the prospects required and weather the $60 million storm.  Unfortunately, at least for small market teams and their fans…the rich get richer…again. 

One last point…don’t go to sleep on Shallow Hal with this one, either. 

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