Anyway, a more appropriate title for this column might be “Why Our Bracket is the Best”, but that would be a little bit self-serving, even for us.

As always, things are subject to change as the rest of the season and conference tourneys play out, but let’s take a look at the tourney teams from the Big Ten, in the most popular bracket out there (Joe Lunardi from ESPN) and the soon-to-be-not-quite-as-unpopular-as-it-is-now bracket over at RPIBracket.com.

No mud slinging here – I love Lunardi and the service he provides.  In fact, the only problem I have with Joe, and all bracketologists for that matter, is that they are judged by how well they predict the actions of the selection committee, a body that is under express orders to generate as much revenue for the NCAA and its member schools as possible. 

So, let’s just take a look at one of the major conferences in Lunardi’s bracket and my bracket, just to see what makes the selection committee (and therefore all bracketologists) tick.  First, the overall stats for the conference as a whole.

I am not sure if there is anything telling there or not, except for the fact that Lunardi has one too many teams in the tournament.  Forget that the team I am about to describe is from a BCS conference for one second, and tell me – does the team described below look like it should be treated as one of the 34 most deserving and at-large-bid–worthy teams in the country?

Record:  18-12

RPI: 73

SOS: 47

Wins Against RPI Top 50: 4

Losses Against RPI Top 51-100: 2

Losses Against RPI Top 101-200: 3

Obviously, the answer is a resounding NO.  Does anyone out there really think that a team with 3 losses against teams that are not in the Top 100 RPI deserves an at-large bid?  Well, I have news for you, my friends – there are going to be at least 2 or 3 teams that meet that criteria in the field of 65 this year, and every single one of them is going to be from a BCS conference.

So, what should we tackle next?  I guess we can start with the team we just discussed briefly above – Illinois.  An absolutely atrocious resume to be getting an at-large bid, and Lunardi has them as a 10 seed.  I am not saying he is wrong, I am just saying that the data does not support the worthiness of Illinois to participate this year.

Not sure how this will play out, but let’s take a look at the 4 teams we share in common.  I think we will find that the only thing that should REALLY matter, the STATS, are on the side of our bracket.  But, the STATS do not line the pockets of the NCAA – the only things that do that are TV revenue and conference bias and east coast bias and juicy matchups and fans travelling to see their teams and spending all kinds of cash – something that the fans of BCS conference teams do very well.  So, without further ado, here we go.

Purdue.  I am shocked by this one, but our bracket actually matches Lunardi here…although I suspect it is because the stats have not caught up with the Boilermakers yet.  If they lose the season finale and do not make enough noise in the Big Ten tourney, I think their drop will be much more precipitous in our bracket than the ones designed around bracketology, or parroting the selection committee, or making money above all else – however you want to look at it.

Ohio State.  First of all, let’s start by saying that it is absolutely hilarious that Ohio State is ranked in the top 10 in both polls.  They have 3 losses against teams with an RPI over 50, one of those against a team with an RPI over 100.  Top 10 teams in the country should not ever lose to a team with an RPI over 100, whether Evan Turner is hurt or not.  We have them right where they belong in our bracket, as a 6 seed, not a 3 seed like they are in everyone else’s bracket.  Then again, we do not subscribe to the moronic practice of running an amateur basketball tournament based on making the largest amount of money possible. 

Suffice it to say, we have 100% confidence that as soon as Ohio State plays a team in the bracket with a seed number lower than 6, Thad Matta will be sitting on his yearly long plane ride…right where he belongs.  Speaking of things about this team that are hilarious – Thad Matta makes $2.5 million per year and his contract does not expire until 2016.  Really, we looked it up.  Besides, the dude looks like this. While we are making fun of A.D.s that give all this money to coaches who almost ALWAYS get bounced out of the tournament by a team inferior to their team, did you know that Rick Barnes also makes over $2 million per year?  It’s true.

Michigan State.  This is the most egregious error by Lunardi and presumably the selection committee.  But the real travesty is that Tom Izzo will make the selection committee look like they know what the hell they are talking about…which they do not.  MSU will end up with a 4 seed, just like they have right now, and they will win their pod and then take the #1 seed in their bracket right to the wire before dropping out of the tournament.  That is all fine and dandy, except for the fact that Michigan State has 3 losses against teams with an RPI > 50, and their own RPI is only 26. 

Based on our algorithm, we have them as a 9 seed.  That would have them (assuming a first-round win) playing the #1 seed in their region 1 game earlier than if they were to receive a 4 seed.  I hope the university enjoys the gift from the selection committee of providing them with whatever revenue they can take from that extra game.

Wisconsin.  Go figure that the team with the second-best RPI in the conference, and the best SOS in the conference, is the team with the fourth-worst seed in the mainstream brackets.  I wonder if it has anything to do with the fact that the three teams with better seeds have vastly more revenue generating potential for the NCAA.  Well, over at RPIBracket.com, where we let the data do the talking, Wisconsin is indeed the Big Ten team with the second-best seed.  Kind of funny how that works out, huh?

Anyway, that’s just a very quick and dirty breakdown of what our current bracket looks like for the Big Ten and how it differs from the mainstream brackets and how it will differ from what the selection committee does this year.  But we absolutely refuse to waver from our promise that we will continue to reward teams with higher seeds in our bracket based strictly on the data and nothing else.

Please feel free to check out our site.  Not only do we have our current bracket out there at any given time, we also have some more information about our process and how it works.  Some of the reading is a little tough, as there is a technical geeky section, but it is pretty easy to see that our bracket, though inaccurate from the standpoint of being able to predict what will happen with the selection committee, is almost certainly a much better approach.

Besides, why would you want to pattern your analysis after a group of people whose sole mission is to squeeze every dime they can out of an amateur basketball tournament?

I guess I will start by getting things right out in the open – if gambling were legal in this country, I would call my bookie just to tell him that I was scared of this game and wouldn’t touch it with a ten-foot pole, unless he had a tantalizing parley or multi-game situation where I could tease the line to something ridiculous…if gambling were legal in this country.  Of the 4 general possibilities, I would say that only 3 are realistic – either team in a rout or Team USA in a tight victory.

Let me clarify that for a second – Team Canada is absolutely incapable of winning a close game in this situation, and who can blame them?  There have been lots of situations in sports where certain guys or certain teams have been under considerable pressure – every single one of those situations pales in comparison to what the Canadians will be feeling on Sunday.  Let me say it again, just so we all understand – the pressure being felt by every single member of Team Canada on Sunday will be greater than the pressure felt by any sports team or figure in any competition in history.  I really don’t think that is an exaggeration…I think it is fact.

Unfortunately, they just cannot win in this situation.  If they win gold, even in blowout fashion, that was what they were supposed to do all along, and they are going to have to answer just as many “what the hell took you so long to come together as a team” questions as “how does it feel to win gold on your home soil” questions.  If it is at all possible to underperform and win a gold medal, that is exactly what they will have done.

When you throw in the fact that hockey is the national sport, and Canadians get downright indignant at the mere thought that someone could come into their country for the Olympics and beat their team – well, then you have a perfect storm of expectations and pressure that has never been matched in sports before.

As for Team USA, they have already exceeded expectations.  If you told them 3 weeks ago that they were going to get the silver medal, they would have been thrilled.  Even a loss on Sunday would be a good result.

As for the game itself, just like the previous game between the 2 teams, the start of the game is the key.  Make no mistake – Team Canada is the big brother – all brawn and no brains.  Physically tough and mentally weak.  Capable of turning in a dominating physical performance (in fact, it is the option with the highest statistical probability for this game), but also capable of soiling their britches at the first sign of trouble and never recovering, as has already happened in a game between these 2 teams in this tournament.

So, let me first start by explaining the picture of Patrick Kane at the top of this column – no man crush involved, it’s just that he may very well be the key to the game, and if you continue reading, you will find that he is definitely the key to the predictions, as they are laid out below.  Basically, I am going to follow the statistical probability format – present the statistical case for all 4 possible options and then tell you what I think will happen, statistics be damned.  So, without further [misguided attempts at] eloquence, here were go.

Option 1 – Team Canada Wins Big – 50%.  If you will indulge me for a minute or two, I would like to keep the big brother analogy going for a bit.  What happened earlier in this tournament is that the little brother (Team USA) landed a huge haymaker right to the kisser of the big brother.  The big brother was so stunned that he wasn’t able to regroup himself to mount any kind of significant counter attack before Mom stepped in and forced them to neutral corners.

Well, the next time he gets the chance, the big brother is going to impose his will on the little brother in the most humiliating way possible, right?  The little brother knows exactly what is coming, but he is powerless to stop it.

This game has the potential to play out exactly like that.  In fact, I am predicting that it is the most likely outcome.

Option 2 – Team USA Wins Small – 30%.  There is a pretty decent chance that Team USA can get a quick start in this game, as they have in so many others during this tournament, including the first time these teams met.  If that happens, then there is no ceiling for what they can accomplish.  They have a great mix of styles going on right now.  They have some skilled and shifty players that are taking all kinds of chances in the offensive zone, and are playing smart, calculated risk-averse defense at the other end.  Oh, and they have a goaltender that can mitigate the risk associated with the chances taken on offense.

They are absolutely capable of doing what they did to Finland in this game, if to a lesser extent.  Another 6-0 first period is a pipe dream, but 2-0 and 3-1 are definitely in play, and if either of those situations come to pass, you would just about be able to sense the collective dread of every Team Canada player and every Canadian citizen coming out of your television, and you could just about write Canada off at that point.

In short, I do not think this option is as likely as Option 1 above, but Team USA is very capable of taking this game in the same way that they took the last game.

Option 3 – Team USA Wins Big – 15%.  The little brother comes out swinging, lands a couple of taps to the nose in the early going, and just tunes the big brother up from the first drop of the puck to the final horn in front of a devastated crowd.  I think that Team Canada just has too much talent for this option to be too statistically relevant, but I am positively giddy just thinking about it. 

Man, the possibilities are endless for this option.  Imagine Team USA winning in decisive fashion, getting microphones stuck in their face after the game and saying something like “Man, this is sweet.  We are going to party tonight.  I think we are going to wait until we get back in the locker room, though.  I mean, we are not going to be drinking beer and smoking cigars on the ice like a bunch of white trash woods-dwellers or anything.  I would like to think that we would represent our country with a little more class than that.”

SIDE NOTE:  I really do not have a problem with what the Canadian women did at the root level.  All these media types are really and truly focusing on the wrong things here.  They were celebrating and partying with their fans.  Do you remember when the Red Sox kept coming out of the clubhouse to party with the fans that were still in Fenway?  The only negative thing I ever heard about that situation (justifiably so, by the way) was that the God-awful riverdance that Papelbon was throwing down was an indictment against dancing, feet, humans and compression shorts.

Sure, there was an 18-year-old gal on the Canadian team, and the legal drinking age in British Columbia is 19, but once again, the media types focusing on that are barking up the wrong tree, too.

Here is the issue – every member of the Canadian team, including the administrators, managers, coaches and every player, knew that their sport was under significant pressure of being eliminated by the IOC.  They saw it with women’s softball and knew that they were on the chopping block.  So, they were basically risking the very presence of their sport in the Olympics for their own selfish reasons.

Here is one last thought – if they knew this, and did it just so they could say for all history that Team Canada won the last Women’s Olympic Hockey gold medal, and they did it on Canadian soil, then that is a different story.  It’s still a selfish and shortsighted move, but I can respect that. 

Assuming that is not that case – a bunch of Canadian women acting like American men and putting all that in jeopardy – well, that kind of behavior garners anything but respect.

Option 4 – Team Canada Wins Small – 5%.  While this is a possibility, I do not think that Team Canada has the chops for it.  They have proven time and again that they will tighten up if pushed.

I am sure that every Canadian hockey fan is scared shitless of a close game after watching how tight the Canadians played when they met Team USA earlier.  The structure of the offense started to steadily decline, the passes out of the zone were less and less crisp, and you could just see it on the faces of the players.  Seriously, Chris Pronger looked as if he was smelling a heinous unclaimed fart for 2 1/2 periods of hockey.

Prediction.  I am going with Option 2, and the reason is Patrick Kane.  Here is the basic analysis, as I see it. 

- Team Canada has two players (Sidney Crosby and Roberto Luongo) that can just take over this game and win it single-handedly.

- Team Canada has one player that can single-handedly lose the game (also Roberto Luongo).  No one trusts Luongo.  Canadian fans are going to be losing sleep Saturday night thinking about Luongo, and if he shits the bed on Sunday (I am officially going to start calling that kind of goalie performance “pulling a Kiprusoff”), he is going to get the Bill Buckner treatment from an entire nation.  I, for one, like Luongo.  One of the best hockey games I ever saw in person was a regular season game between the Panthers, when they had Luongo and Pavel Bure, and the Rangers.  The fact that it was during Spring Break, and Florida’s home arena was full of Rangers fans, and they were acting the way that Rangers fans act, and I got to beat the crap out of one of them that was slapping his girlfriend around in the parking lot…well, that was just icing on the cake.  But the point is, I could see greatness in Luongo that night…and any night you got to see the Russian Rocket back then was a good night.  For his sake, I hope Luongo has a decent game.  No athlete deserves what would happen to him if he “pulls a Kiprusoff”.  Oh yeah, that just sounds right — “pulling a Kiprusoff” is here to stay.

- After the game against Finland, Team USA officially has two players that can take over this game and win it – Ryan Miller and Patrick Kane.  Prior to the Finland game, I would have just placed Miller on this list.  Oh, your boy Mack knew that this was coming from Kane, I just didn’t think he had the mental make-up for it to come in the Olympics at the age of 21.  You kind of have to feel that way about any young athlete millionaire that tunes up a cabbie because he doesn’t have 20 cents change, right?

Anyway, I think Kane is the X-factor.  I think he is going to be able to get a shot off any time he wants it on Sunday, and I think he is going to score at least another 2 goals, and be the consensus “Player of the Game”.  Notice that I did not use the term “MVP”, as Ryan Miller won that award as soon as Kiprusoff pulled a Kiprusoff.

I hope I am not getting greedy, but I want more Canadian tears.  The mechanical failure during the opening ceremonies was not enough.  Hell, even Gretzky’s face during the opening ceremonies, although precious, was not enough.  The group victory was not enough.  I would love to see another Gold medal 30 years after the last one.  Assuming that best case scenario, and that it happens in dramatic fashion, here is my final thought.  It won’t quite match what happened in 1980, but for a hockey game, I will damn sure take Doc Emrick over Al Michaels any day.

Then, the first version of the bracket had a couple of significant anomalies in it.  Since it is only our second year, and probably only about the 25th time that we generated the bracket, we didn’t mind taking a quick look at the algorithm to see what we could see.  In case you are interested, we made a slight tweak to it.

So, we are once again poised to (hopefully) help college basketball fans see exactly how the selection committee screws over teams from the non-BCS conferences.  I know, I know – big surprise.  Everyone knows that it is going on, so what’s the point?

Well, the point is that we can, with our proprietary algorithm and bracket, not only quantify the level of the screw-job, but we can tell exactly which teams, based solely on the data, got screwed over…and by how much.

We have a high level of confidence in our algorithm, and the key metric that it spits out for all 347 teams in Division I, the Tournament Index (T.I.).  It is a completely objective jumping-off point for comparisons between and among teams. 

As mentioned on the RPIBracket.com site, there is no room for any bias whatsoever – no big conference bias, no program tradition bias, no revenue generation potential bias, etc. – just the data.  And we don’t just do that for tourney qualification, we do that for seeding as well.  For instance, if you look in our current bracket, you will see that Michigan State is a 10 seed, despite being ranked #14 in the polls.  This is because MSU has lost 2 games against teams ranked 51-100 in the RPI, and their February record was 2-4.  Those happen to be 2 things that our algorithm does not like.  Plus, the Big Ten is not very strong this year compared to other conferences…so you have Ohio State with a 5 seed in our bracket, even though they are a Top 10 team, according to the polls.

While it is a great bonus that there are 2 Big Ten teams that our bracket is not giving respect, that was not our intention.  Besides, there is risk with any system.  For instance, Tom Izzo is capable of elevating his team way beyond what they should be capable of.  Thad Matta, on the other hand, is capable of losing a first round game in the tournament to a grossly inferior team.  Seriously, he is a contender for this year’s Rick Barnes award…although with Barnes himself in the mix, it is tough to see someone else stepping up (down?) and “coaching” their team to an early exit with the same level of proficiency exhibited on a year-in, year-out basis by Rick Barnes.

At any rate, the 2010 version is now live.  It is not perfect, but please feel free to check it out and chime in.  Based on the information in the algorithm, it’s definitely a good basis for comparing two teams, and I am more than happy to share the generalities of the data, if not the algorithm itself.  Also, unlike anyone that calls themselves a bracketologist, I am receptive to criticism and have even tweaked the algorithm in the past based on clearly presented arguments from readers and fans.

Costas is great at what he does and there is so seldom a nit to pick – but he totally screwed the pooch the first night of the Olympics (not the opening ceremonies, the next night).  OK – I have to take a slight detour here to ask you – unless you are a Canadian, how absolutely precious was Wayne Gretzky’s face during the mechanical failure at the opening ceremonies?  Thinking about it as I wrote the last sentence, I giggled like a school girl.  Team USA could win gold in every event and that would still be my favorite moment of these Olympics.  Then again, Canadians just plain piss me off…and I know I am not the only one.

OK – back to Bob Costas.  Here is the background – he was talking about Apollo Anton Ohno’s quest to tie Bonnie Blair for the most medals (six) all-time by a winter games athlete from the United States.  Just for a minute, let’s remember that Ohno has done it in one fewer Olympic games than Blair.  It was actually kind of a nice piece, and a decent repartee between Costas and Collinsworth, who are quite good together and a pleasant surprise.  Everything was fine until Costa brought up Eric Heiden.

Costas, as he is wont to do, especially during the Olympics, tries to keep things interesting, while also using some words that must make him feel superior to what he imagines to be his average viewer.  Unfortunately, he does not possess the required eloquence to do so with anything but fleeting success, and it often rings hollow with me…especially since I have actually heard him use, and mispronounce, more than one big word during all of the Olympic games he has covered.

Anyway, while discussing some of the best American athletes ever in the winter games, he mentioned Heiden and his 5 medals being tied with Ohno entering these winter games.  So far, so good.

Then, Costas said the following: “Of course, with Heiden, all 5 medals were gold, and in the same Olympics, which is downright Phelpsian.”  Kudos to Bob for coming up with a new and stupid word to honor Michael “Are You Holding” Phelps.

Here is the problem – you could almost say that the performance by Michael Phelps in Beijing was Heiden-esque…except for the fact that Phelps barely eked out a win in just about every single medal-winning swim.  If he had been done swimming and sitting on the edge of the pool, talking on his cell phone, with no shortness of breath as the other swimmers finished the race, then, and only then, could you say that he, even for one small moment, started to approach the performance of Eric Heiden in Lake Placid.

So, Costas got it dead wrong.  Hopefully, he was just trying to use a cute word that he made up and wanted to stay “contemporary” for the younger viewers, or the ones too stupid to dig farther back into their brain than a couple of summers ago.  I certainly hope that he is not so completely out of touch with Olympic history that he doesn’t know that Michael Phelps had an amazing summer games, but it wasn’t anything even close to the domination of Eric Heiden in 1980.  Picture this – 5 gold medals (still the only speed skater to win all 5 over a career, and he did it in a single Olympics), 4 Olympic Records, 1 World Record…and he didn’t need a special suit to help him set those records…just the tree trunks masquerading as his legs. 

I understand that Phelps has offered his brand of domination over 2 Olympics, while Heiden only did it once, but Heiden was blowing dudes up, while Phelps was just winning.  When you are having the kind of conversation Costas was trying to have, it makes a difference…and he got it dead wrong.

It’s always something small like this that gives me the hates for Costas, but his radio show is just so damn good that I am sure I will be back on the Costas fanboy list within a month.  But until then, that little dude is on thin ice with me…and thin ice is not something you want when you are trying to have a winter Olympics in a city where it usually rains just about every day in February.  Friggin’ Canada…

I guess we SHOULD start off on a positive note.  Drew Brees was ON.  And the Colts decided to get in the prevent defense at the start of the 2nd quarter (more on that later), so he just picked them apart all night after that.  And don’t get me started on Sean Payton.  He reminded everyone what Jim Caldwell is – a rookie coach.  And how about that onside kick?  Balls of steel, coach.  Balls of steel.  The one common characteristic of just about every coach in the Parcells tree…and the one thing usually in short supply for coaches from the Marty Schottenheimer coaching tree (like Tony Dungy and Jim Caldwell, for instance).

OK – enough of that rubbish – let’s get NEGATIVE!  There is so much blame to go around the Indy side of this game, I don’t even know where to start.  I could easily start at the top and talk about a family that took a team away from a city, or talk about a team president that has made an entire career out of building teams that were just good enough to come in 2nd place (except for the one time his team got to play Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl), or talk about a decade’s worth of coaching staffs that seemed to have their teams less prepared the bigger the game (except for the one time they got to coach against Lovie Smith in the Super Bowl)…but that is kind of the low-hanging fruit of this argument.  I’ll just start with the current coaching staff and work my way down.

So, how should we slice up the blame for this loss?

Jim Caldwell – 40%.  Man – there is just so much he did wrong; where the heck should I start?  How about the fact that Jim Caldwell’s onions, or lack thereof, quite possibly cost his team the Super Bowl.  When I talk about the lack of onions, I am basically talking about 2 things Jim Caldwell did, in an ACTIVE fashion, to sabotage his team’s efforts in the most important game of his coaching career.  First of all, with a defense that had just been on the field for a grueling 8-minute drive (culminated by a HUGE, momentum-shifting stop on 4th and Goal), decided to run the ball 3 times, risk not getting a first down, and gave the ball back to Drew Brees, who predictably led a FG drive to end the half, with Screech Hartley absolutely crushing yet another big kick.  The next time where I thought Caldwell should not have been too proud of his testicular fortitude was when he decided to do his Rex Ryan imitation and abandon a running game that was being very effective at getting big chunks of yards, prolonging drives, saving the legs of the Colts defense and putting pressure on the Saints defense to boot.  Yeah, sounds like a great time to hit the panic button.

If those were the ONLY 2 things Jim Caldwell messed up, that would have to go down as one of the worst coaching jobs in Super Bowl history, right?  Well, we are not even close to done with Caldwell.  His special teams were atrocious.  The fact that every single Colts player was not waiting an extra tic on every kickoff with a known gambler on the other sideline is absolutely inexcusable.  The fact that either a) Jim Caldwell did not personally talk to every member of his kick-off team’s front line of defense at least once per day to make sure that they knew to look for the fake and just concentrate on the fundamentals if it comes your way – stay calm, look the ball in and get it up against your body as soon as possible or b) he DID do that and his players had so little respect for him that they were totally unprepared when the situation came up in the biggest game of the year.

Another thing I have a huge problem with in this game from Caldwell is that he did not recognize that Manning was off.  He didn’t notice that there was a little extra flutter to his throws.  He didn’t notice that there was a little bit of extra chop in Peyton Manning’s feet in the pocket – not quite the “happy feet” we used to see, but enough to be a cause for concern.  He didn’t notice that his throws themselves seemed to be a little bit less accurate than normal.  He just plain did not know enough about what he was seeing, or did not have enough gumption to make a change and start to shade the mix of plays toward more runs and less passes.  Why the hell would you want to do that?  It was only intuitively obvious to even a casual observer that the Saints were completely unprepared for the Colts’ running game in the first half.  But hey, the head coach and his entire staff missed it.  Yeah – that sounds like a Super Bowl caliber performance, huh? 

I am strongly considering if 40% is really enough blame for Caldwell and his staff.

Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne (30%).  It was an absolute disgrace that these 2 perennial Pro-Bowlers both took the same play off.  No look off from Manning – just staring down Reggie the whole time.  No crisp route by Reggie – just going through the motions. 

If you have the game on DVR, go ahead and watch that drive again.  When you get to the play that happened 2 plays before the TAINT, watch what Tracy Porter does just before the snap.  By that point in the game, he had already started to recognize when that play was coming, and had already started to open up his hips to the inside of the field and take MULTIPLE steps toward the inside of the field just before the snap to put himself in the best position possible.  Sure, hindsight is 20/20, but aren’t there people in the Colts’ organization that are paid to notice that kind of stuff?  Aren’t 2 of those people named Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne?

I would say that you can probably pile about 2/3 of the 30% blame right on Manning’s shoulders.  As discussed several times on this blog and countless hundreds of times with Colts fans all over Indianapolis, Peyton Manning is the first ever “all-time great” that would rather throw the ball away than take a hit to make a play.  No matter if it is a meaningless Week 6 game or the Super Bowl.  I used to really fault Manning for not being able to toughen up during big games, but after years and years of watching QBs, I am starting to think that you are either wired one way or the other.  Manning cannot play tough when the situation dictates any more than Brett Favre can play it safe when the situation dictates. 

That’s why, if I need to win 115 regular season games in a decade, Manning is my guy, but if I need to win one game, an all-important game, then I want someone else.  Sure, I do not think any of these names will stand next to the name “Peyton Manning” decades from now, but if I had to win one game right now, there are a few QBs that I would take over Manning in a heartbeat – they are, in no particular order: Tom Brady, Chad Pennington, Mark Sanchez (that’s 3 and we aren’t out of the AFC East yet), Ben Roethlisberger, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Drew Brees.  So, that’s nine.  Out of respect for the Manning family, I will not put Warner or Favre on the list.

Make no mistake, Peyton Manning is one of the best QBs ever…it’s just that people need to start qualifying that statement, with a “regular season” or “during months that end in B-E-R”.

One more bit of heartache I have with this play.  If anyone other than Manning made that throw, no one would even be mentioning the fact that Reggie Wayne gave up on the play.  It would just be “can you believe that QB blew the Super Bowl for his team?”  Could you imagine if Tony Romo had made that throw?  We might never hear from him again.  Instead, everyone is trying to find someone other than Manning to blame.  Here is what I say to those folks – you gave that dude credit for all 14 regular season wins, at least 10 of which were flat-out chokes by the other team…so you have to give him the blame for this one.  You can’t have it both ways.

So, Peyton Manning choked away the Super Bowl for his team.  He had the opportunity to solidify his place in history or be just another dude with a .500 playoff record, and his skills, composure and decision making in the big moment limited him to the latter. 

Hank Baskett – 15%. Just like someone from your coaching staff told you at least once every single day between Conference Championship weekend and Super Bowl Sunday – “look out for the fake – Sean Payton loves to mix it up and call for bold plays; if it happens, just stay calm and remember what we have been talking about for 2 weeks – stay loose, watch the ball into your hands, and get it tucked up against your body as soon as possible.”  Oh, no one ever told you that?  Are you sure?  C’mon – every high school kid that watches the NFL on Sunday knows that Sean Payton is from the Bill Parcells coaching tree and loves to sack up and call onside kicks and fake punts and double reverses and everything else right?

Make no mistake, the fact that Baskett was leaning back, and even taking a step back away from the play BEFORE the kick, and the fact that he was surprised at all by the play, is a lack of leadership on the Colts sideline.  The fact that he completely blew it and shrunk during the biggest chance he had to make an impact on the game – well, that’s on him.  Maybe he was thinking about that classy wife of his.

Colts Defense – 15%.  I have gone back and forth on the responsibility of the Colts defense in all of this.  At first, I thought that they should take a lot of the blame.  I am fairly certain that this was because Clint Session was the only Colts player to take any personal responsibility for the loss at all on Sunday night.  I mean, no one else in the entire organization took any responsibility…none…not one little bit.  Anyway, some time after that, I started to think about how the Colts defense actually held the Saints offense to 24 points, which is not too bad.

Then, I remembered that the Colts decided to start playing the prevent defense in the 2nd quarter and didn’t stop until the game was over.  During the game, I came up with a name for the Colts defense they were playing on Sunday – instead of their usual “Cover 2”, they were in a “Cover Zero”.  That’s how many Saints receivers they were covering on every pass play – ZERO.  Combine multiple open receivers on every play with a guy (Drew Brees) that was putting just about every single pass within 6 inches of the perfect spot, and you have a recipe for disaster.

There is a good reason why the Colts defense is last on this list.  They did a pretty decent job.  There is also a good reason why there are on the list at all.  They looked pretty solid all year, but they played one of the easiest schedules in the entire league from a defensive standpoint.  Supposedly, Jim Caldwell made huge changes in the defense, and all anyone in Indy wanted to talk about was the team speed they had on defense this year, but they did not have in the past.  But as it turns out, if you take a very soft defense, make it smaller and quicker, you end end up with a soft defense that has speed.  The problem with that approach is that it can be very effective against the AFC South but tends to get exposed by playoff-caliber teams – kind of like the Jets did before Rex Ryan hit the panic button and the Saints did for 3 quarters of the Super Bowl.

I also have a huge problem with the Colts actually playing the prevent defense for 3 quarters of the Super Bowl.  That is basically a conscious decision by everyone involved that they do not have the personnel and/or toughness to make a game of it playing a stand-up defense.  Instead of trying to stop the Saints and make some plays, they decided that they would rather invest their time trying to slow the Saints down.  You know what – it worked.  They slowed down the Saints offense and held them to 24 points.  Too bad that their coach and QB let them down.

Anyway, there is the analysis.  It was kind of a meandering semi-rant, but I think the numbers are about correct.  The loss was most directly a reflection of which head coach was ready to do what it took to win the game and which head coach was just trying not to lose the game. 

When you take that atrocious coaching display, throw in a typical big game performance from Manning, add in one play that Reggie Wayne decided to take off, mix in the fact that they had to rely on Hank Baskett to make a simple play, and a soft defense trying to slow down a big, physical offense.  It’s a recipe for disaster.

And I didn’t even mention the fact that the Colts organization decided to commit one of the most heinous examples of a team thumbing their nose at the process for qualifying for the NFL playoffs in Week 16 of the regular season.  So the new stats are the same as the old stats – no team has ever pulled some crap like that and won a Super Bowl, and after my interview with karma last week, I doubt it will ever happen.

MoS:  Welcome to Indianapolis.  It’s nice of you to stop by.
Karma:  No problem.  It was a logical place to stop on my way to Miami.

MoS:  Miami?  Do you mean the Super Bowl?
Karma:  Yes I do.  You don’t think think they can have this Super Bowl without me, do you?

MoS:  I guess not.  Besides, you are on some kind of roll, huh?  Nice work over conference championship weekend, my friend.  That was truly an epic performance.
Karma:  Well, it started out kind of tough.  I had my eye on the Colts, and then, as soon as Jets got down by 3 points and Rex Ryan started to panic, I just had to step in.  What a horrible coaching decision — easily the worst one I saw the entire year.  I feel bad for all the second-guessing of Rex in the national media, though.

MoS:  Maybe you have been busy in other parts of the globe, but there had been no second-guessing at all.  No one outside of New York City has had anything to say about it.
Karma:  What?  Are you kidding me?  Man, that chaps my ass!  I jumped all over Ryan and decided to ride him down in flames.  How does no one know that I made him blow that game?

MoS:  Everyone is just talking about how good the Colts are.
Karma:  Ha ha.  They are one heck of a team.  Not sure it’s going to matter in Miami, though. [grins]

MoS:  Whatever do you mean?
Karma:  Oh, just a feeling.  You know that no team that ever thumbed their nose at the process of qualifying for the playoffs has ever gone on to win the Super Bowl, right?

MoS:  Oh, yes.  I am definitely aware of that, but this Colts team seems to be impervious to your efforts.  I mean, just about every opponent of theirs has choked the game away in some fashion this year.  Then, the one team that should have been poised for karmic revenge, the Jets, ends up choking the game away too, just like everyone else.  I have my doubts that anyone can beat the good luck the Colts seem to be having this year.
Karma:  Well, it WAS kind of a tough call for me, but I could not resist Rex Ryan.  Plus, I had decided that I was going after Brett Favre and Brad Childress with everything I had…and if the Jets ended up in the crossfire, so be it.  Let’s not forget the team that enabled that absolutely atrocious "you can’t play for anyone in the NFC North for one year" move by the Packers.  Was there anyone surprised that Favre ended up with the Vikings, his first choice all along, one year later?  That really cannot happen without the Jets really pissing me off along the way, you know.  I was really planning on leaving them alone, and giving the Colts what they have deserved ever since Week 16, but then Rex Ryan started to panic and I could not help myself.

MoS:  What a shame that the Colts are getting all the credit for that one.  Clearly an oversight.  What about the Vikings and Saints?  You didn’t have anything to do with that one, did you?  [laughs out loud] Man, I really thought I could make it through that one with a straight face.
Karma:  [Grinning from ear to ear] To quote a brilliant writer I once knew — whatever do you mean?

MoS:  Oh, I don’t know — 6 fumbles, 3 of them lost, and 2 INTs…rookie kicker looking like Adam Vinatieri circa January 2002…it kind of looks to me like it had your fingerprints all over it.
Karma:  Well, modesty prevents me from taking too much credit, but I will say that I did not intercede at all on the last play from scrimmage for the Vikings offense – the 12-men-in-the-huddle call was just a shortcoming in the Vikings coaching staff (big surprise, huh) and the last throw, well that was just Brett being Brett.  It’s his signature move; it is what he has done with greater skill and consistency than anyone in the history of the league — throwing the ball to the wrong team.

MoS:  What about all those fumbles?  Surely you had something to do with that, right?
Karma:  I can neither confirm nor deny anything along those lines, but I will say this – thank goodness for Brett Favre.  I had given up on the Saints by that point.  I believe that my exact words were: "if you STILL can’t win with all these damn fumbles I have given you, then you deserve to lose!"  I mean…it appeared that the Saints defense did an excellent job getting in good position and going for the ball while tackling…[laughs out loud]  Now it is my turn…just like you, I thought I could make it through that statement with a straight face.  I was incorrect.

MoS:  Fair enough.  Happens to the best of us.  So, do you have anything planned for the Super Bowl that we should be aware of?
Karma:  Well, I will not say that I have anything planned, and I will not say that I do not have anything planned, but there is one team that is playing for an entire city that got kicked in the teeth by a natural disaster of biblical proportions just a few short years ago, and the other team decided to actively interfere with the playoff process in the NFL.  It certainly would appear that I have an opportunity to get involved once again.

MoS:  Yes, but you have had a slightly up-and-down record in Super Bowls lately.  I understand the Pats-Giants and David Tyree, but what about the Steelers last year?  I mean, didn’t they break every rule in the book, and didn’t they have 3 separate players commit eject-able plays during the first 3 quarters?  How could you misfire on that one?
Karma:  That game turned out as I had planned.  Kurt Warner told his children that he would buy them a puppy if the Cardinals won the NFC Championship.  Well, he reneged on that promise.  Breaking a promise to a child trumps anything the Steelers did, or could do, during the course of that game.

MoS:  What about the Colts-Bears game a few years ago?
Karma:  Lovie Smith made a conscious decision to ride Rex Grossman in that game.  It really was out of my hands after that.  I liked the fact that, as he did so many times before, Tony Dungy did such a poor job preparing his team that they gave up an opening kickoff touchdown to the only player on the Bears that was capable of hurting the Colts at all.  That really was a classic move by Tony.  Truly reassuring.  I will miss him coaching in the NFL.  The lack of preparedness of his teams in the biggest games was one of the only constants in an ever-changing world.  While he is truly an amazing man away from football, it’s kind of tough to get past all the playoff futility he experienced as a coach.

MoS:  So, I have to get back to talking about this year.  What can you tell us about the game?
Karma:  Well, I can’t really say anything prior to the game, but I can guarantee that if you find me celebrating in the wee hours of Monday morning, I will say but 4 words:  Ain’t I a bitch?

MoS:  Celebrating in the wee hours?  Are you talking about Bourbon Street?
Karma:  [Smiles]  This interview is over.

His defense has, in the past 2 games, put a physical beating on 2 great quarterbacks (Kurt Warner and Brett Favre) by destroying 2 of the best offensive lines in the league.  His defense never sacked Brett Favre, and only sacked Warner once, but they DID hit them each about 4,700 times…all the while without drawing a single holding call against the Vikings offensive line OR the Cardinals offense line.  Actually, there WAS one holding call against the Cardinals, but that was on a running play.

Let’s forget for a minute that it is absolutely INEXCUSABLE that there was not a single holding call on either of those offensive lines with all the pressure the Saints were bringing.  Actually, it’s kind of tough to forget that – especially with the Saints having to go up against the Colts’ offensive line this weekend.  According to the statistics, the Colts’ offensive line must be the best in the history of the entire league.  I think the fact that they have protected Peyton Manning so well all year and hardly ever been called for holding would mandate that all of those guys should be in the hall of fame, right?  Or maybe there is just an edict from the Commissioner of the NFL that Peyton Manning should be protected at all costs.

One more minor point – doesn’t the Commissioner know that Peyton Manning is the best quarterback in history at getting rid of the ball at the first sign of trouble?  See how I am mellowing with age?  It would have been so easy to present the other side of the argument – Peyton Manning is the least likely quarterback in history to stay in there and take a hit to make a play, which kind of makes him a huge sissy, but I would probably be a sissy too if there was $100 million at stake by doing so.  Sure, couple that fact with the mandatory Peyton Manning quick snap to either force a penalty or a time out, and you really have to question the guy’s manhood, right?

I will give him the benefit of the doubt and say that Archie Manning, who took so much abuse by not only having the “gunslinger” gene but also playing for some pretty bad teams, has advised both of his sons against being a tackling dummy.  The difference between the two sons is that Eli appears to know when taking a hit is worth it, and Peyton just does not ever take a hit, even when his team needs him to take one, no matter what.  There is no way, under ANY circumstances, that Peyton Manning would have been able to orchestrate the David Tyree Helmet Catch.  As soon as one of those Patriot defenders got near him, he would have thrown the ball away or lied down on the field. 

You cannot argue with the success Peyton Manning has had with that approach over the years, but there is also no argument to anything I have just written.  I will say it again – Peyton Manning could not have sublimated his fear long enough to make the play that Eli Manning made on the throw to David Tyree.  I have been watching the guy play for over 10 years, and he has never, ever demonstrated the toughness (and, quite frankly, a little bit of gunslinger stupidity as well) required to make that play under any circumstance.  I have watched him throw the ball away and lie down in the 4th quarter of playoff games down by one score – it’s just not in his makeup to make those plays.  He sure as hell seems to make every other play possible, so I guess there is no requirement for being tough and standing in there to take a hit if you don’t have to.

Anyway – because of those facts (yes, Colts fans, they are FACTS – please save your vitriol for an argument you can win) – Gregg Williams is the single most important person in this game.  If he can force an appearance by Happy Feet Manning, like Bill Belichick did all of those times, then the Saints will win.  If Gregg Williams can get that done, I will not be surprised.  He has done it the past 2 games against two quarterbacks that are tough and like to hang in the pocket and have offensive lines just as good as the Colts.  The Cardinals absolutely could not take advantage of that pressure with the running game, and got blown out.  The Vikings DID take advantage in the running game, and should have won easily.  But Brad Childress decided to run up the score against Dallas, so you ended up with about 57 fumbles and the greatest player in history at throwing the ball to the wrong team doing what he does better than anyone in history.  But the Vikes kind of had their way in the running game.

So, that brings us to the #2 key to this game…the Colts running game.  Joseph Addai is a serviceable running back…Donald Brown is a certifiable home run hitter.  Both of them have trouble hanging onto the ball in big games.  But, if they can put together a few long runs, that might just give Manning a split second longer, so he can find an open receiver instead of throwing the ball away.

The last key to the game, for me, is Reggie Bush.  He will not have an “OK” game.  He will be a non-factor, or he will be the Super Bowl M.V.P. – and nothing in between.  The Colts always seem to be giving up a big play on special teams (nice to see Jim Caldwell carrying on the proud tradition of Tony Dungy in this area), and Reggie showed what he is capable of against the Cardinals.  He has also shown what he is capable of at the other end of the spectrum way too many times for Saints fans that have been questioning Reggie ever since the Saints picked him in the first round.

So, in my mind, those are the 3 keys to the game.  Can Gregg Williams make Peyton Manning throw the ball away, or maybe even have one of his players get a hit on Manning?  Sorry Mister Commissioner, I didn’t mean to say that.  I will not let it happen again.  I know that I will never, ever get a media credential again if I do not retract that statement, so I do so unequivocally.  I received the “Manning, Favre and Brady are Untouchable” memo and must have forgotten about it for a second.  I don’t know what I was thinking.

The other 2 keys are the Colts being able to run the ball enough to keep the Saints’ defense from pinning their ears back, and the ultimate X-factor – Reggie Bush.

Far more “qualified” folks than myself have provided all kinds of analysis about this game.  Almost all of them have been talking out of their posteriors, because the three keys to the game, as I have just described them, are complete mysteries.  You could see any one of those 3 things happening on either end of the pendulum.  The Saints could easily hit Manning even more than they hit Favre, or never get to him at all.  The Colts running game could go for 200 yards and 3 TDs, or 25 yards…and the Colts could win in either of those scenarios.  Reggie Bush could end up with 4 TDs and the most impressive Super Bowl in history for someone not named Doug Williams, or he could just be another guy that is out there trying to make a play.

I might be going out on a limb here, but I am thinking that Reggie is going to be the man, just like he was in the Rose Bowl…and when it comes to doing what it takes to win and taking hits and scrambling for first downs, Peyton Manning is not Vince Young.  So, here is the prediction:

New Orleans   34

Indianapolis    27

Super Bowl MVP:  Reggie Bush

1. Some of my hatred for Peyton Manning parallels the hatred I have for Jim Calhoun.  Peyton Manning was an endorsement darling, and one of the most marketable faces of the league, before he won anything.  Actually, that happened before he even came CLOSE to winning anything.  He has extreme difficulty stringing together a sentence that does not sound like he is pissed off at English professors everywhere.  Sure, there are probably some smart people with that kind of accent – you know, doctors and lawyers in Mississippi and such.  Of course, they are doctors and lawyers in Mississippi.  Must be really difficult to be the cream at the top of that genetic cesspool, huh?  I just never understood the logic of it – like you could just picture an advertising executive talking himself into the prospect of a country bumpkin that can’t speak English and has lost every big game he has played at every level.  Who would want to sign up for that?  By the way – the reason I do not like Jim Calhoun is that he was the first Big East basketball coach to earn $1 million per season – not Boeheim, Carlissimo, Carnesecca, Massimino, Thompson, or anyone else that helped build that conference from nothing.  Just a traveshamockery, if you ask me.

2. Manning has still not won a big game that did not include at least one of the following: the Patriots second string defense, Rex Grossman, Lovie Smith, Rex Ryan hitting the panic button.  That last one is slightly sketchy, since Manning had a great game, but make no mistake about it – Rex Ryan gave that game away by chucking the ball all over the yard on 3 straight possessions in the late 3rd and early 4th quarters, after dominating the entire game except for about 6 plays up to that point.  Just an inexcusable coaching performance by the opposition, and Manning gets all the credit.  I am confused once again.

3. He tried to hit on my wife (who was single at the time) while he was engaged to be married.  Sure, the phrase “until you say ‘I do,’ you can” is probably relevant here, but the fact that it was my girl hits a little too close to home, even if this happened over a year before I even met my wife.  So, this one is not too bad, but couple it with the next one, and you might have a good reason for any decent law-abiding citizen to not like Peyton Manning.

4. He showed his ass (literally) to a female student reporter in the Tennessee locker room and then showed his ass (figuratively) by not owning up to it.  Of course, by the time it came out, he was well on the way to being a darling of the NFL.  How else can you explain how this story was not even in the news for a complete 24-hour news cycle?  It was there; it was gone.  Kind of interesting, eh?  Sure, it was the fact that he was Peyton Manning, not anything else, but I thought it was just a horrible move by the NFL to step in and squash the presence of the story in the media.  They really opened themselves up for some tough questions to answer regarding preferential status to its stars, especially those that play quarterback, and happen to be of fair complexion.  None of that is Manning’s fault, but what would you call a guy that would do that to a girl?  As the father of daughter myself, I can only say that if some hotshot QB were to ever expose his backside to my little girl, his biggest concern would be having my daughter’s foot surgically removed, and then having to deal with me on top of it.

OK – with all of that being said, along with about 47 other really good reasons why I hate Manning that I will not share, as this is already getting long enough – let’s get to the difficult part, at least for me.  So, here goes.

Peyton Manning has a very good chance to be the greatest quarterback in the history of the NFL, or at least “in the discussion.”  There, I said it.  I just threw up in my mouth, but at least it’s out in the open now.  Regardless of what happens this Sunday in Miami, if he continues putting up the stats he has been putting up, then he will be “in the discussion” some time in the next 3-5 years.

But if he wins on Sunday, he is officially “in the discussion” during the post-game interview.  He could go out and wrap his car around a tree, or suffer a career threatening injury in the 2010-2011 preseason, or any one of a million things that could put the next 3-5 years in jeopardy for him…but if he can win his 2nd championship, then he is officially “in the discussion”.

I am pretty sure that Manning knows this, as the one discriminating factor that lifts a player from a first-ballot hall of famer (Dan Marino) to an “all-time greatest” contender (Joe Montana) seems to be MULTIPLE championships.  When is the last time you heard someone outside of Dade County talking about Dan Marino as the greatest of all time?  Never – that’s when.  In terms of pure talent and making the most of what he had to work with, no other quarterback in history could hold Marino’s jock…not for one second…not even close.  But, Joe Montana had great skill, great players around him, and most importantly, a great system.

I am not saying Joe Montana was a system quarterback.  You could insert any other quarterback from his era into that San Francisco offense of the 80s (with the possible exceptions of Marino, Jim Kelly and John Elway) and not get the same results…but that West Coast offense did not hurt.  It is no surprise that so many other coaches from the Bill Walsh tree have had success.

I look at the Marino-Montana argument kind of like I look at Manning-Brady.  If you put Montana in Miami all of those years, he would have exactly ZERO championship rings; if you put Marino in San Francisco, he might have 5 or 6 rings.  Same thing with the 2 guys running things now.  If Manning was in New England all of those years, he could possibly have the same thing he has now – one ring.  If Brady had the benefit of all those Colts teams that Manning had, he would probably have 4 or 5 rings.  But Marino did not play for Walsh and Brady did not play for the Colts…so we will never know.

By the way, that discussion (what would the Manning-Brady argument be like if they had switched teams in 1998) sends Colts fans off the deep end.  They know that any argument they make is indefensible, they know that Manning/Dungy had the best team in the NFL at least 4 times (winning ZERO championships with those teams), but they still try to make their case.  As usual with passionate fans, when you start making counter points backed up by the facts, they just start screaming…but facts and intellect will always trump volume when talking about this kind of stuff.  Sorry, Colts fans.  Sorry, Stephen A. Smith.  It’s true.

So, back to Manning – Sunday’s game is the no-kidding defining moment for him, in terms of his historical significance, as it stands right now.  The Colts could get blown out on Sunday, and Manning could still go down as the greatest ever.  If he continues to proceed the way he has been going lately, then I would not bet against him accomplishing that feat.  However, with a win on Sunday, Manning is instantly “in the discussion.”

Of course, it’s so difficult to compare and contrast players from different eras.  Could you imagine the numbers Sammy Baugh would have put up with the current rules that govern DB conduct against receivers?  We might not even be considering anyone else.  Baugh could still be untouched.  But, you can’t really compare guys from different eras.  So, the best a guy can hope for is to be “in the discussion.”

If the Colts can get it done on Sunday, that is exactly where Peyton Manning will be…in the discussion.

First things first – about the picture to the left.  Kind of a mildly interesting story – I was looking for a picture along the same lines of the picture from the column referenced earlier.  All red-blooded males should go ahead and click that link now, if they have not done so already.  Don’t even read the column, just look at the picture for the appropriate context of the next several sentences.  Anyway, I was looking for a similar picture, so I called on my buddy Uncle Google to assist.  Typing in “ring card girls” and “round card girls” (both fine searches and well worth your time, by the way) got me a bunch of results that I was not too happy with – basically the way you would feel if you looked at any of these ring/round card girls up close sans 2 pounds of makeup.  Anyway, I decided that I would type in “sexy boxing” and maybe get a picture of a celebrity or actress dressed up in boxing garb.  Instead, I got this picture of the Klitschko brothers in what can only be described as the two most beautiful coats I have ever seen.  I am not sure how many Siberian ice beavers had to give their life to make this picture happen, but in one man’s opinion, it was well worth it.  By the way – I made up the “Siberian ice beaver”, so do not Google it.

Anyway, back to the task at hand.  Suffice it to say, the only people associated with either game that I would not like to see fail miserably are Payton (not Peyton, Payton), Brees and Sanchez.  After the week I have had, I am fully expecting that the final predictions of this column will end up favoring the Colts and the Vikings.

Am I saying that I have no idea how this is going to turn out?  Yes.  That is EXACTLY what I am saying.  You see, I have invested so much time over the years spewing hatred of just about everyone involved, I need to find some kind of emotional detachment, lest I end up just recounting Brett Favre crying on the sidelines of Texas Stadium, or somehow getting a “clutch” reputation on the coattails of Desmond Howard…or Peyton Manning losing every single big game he has ever played in that did not involve the 2nd-string Patriots defense or the combination of Lovie Smith and Rex Grossman…or the fact that Jason Garrett handed the Vikings an easy victory last week…or the fact that the Vikings bankrolled the Cowboys dynasty in the 90s…or that fact that Steve Flippin’ Walsh singlehandedly kept Dallas out of the playoffs with a career game the last week of the season, as a member of the Saints, after he looked a hell of a lot more like Quincy Carter than Troy Aikman during his time with the Cowboys…or that fact that the Jets’ run has vaulted Mike Greenberg from the bottom portion of the list of Top 10 Douches in All Sports Media to a solid #2 on the list, behind only Screamin’ A. Smith.

Speaking of Screamin’ A., the misogynistic racist – how come he gets in the grill of every guest on his show that is not African-American and/or female; patronizes and talks down to all the females; and jock sniffs the hell out of all the African-American guests?  He also bullies the hell out of every single caller that even SOUNDS white, and takes the opposite approach with callers that sound African-American on the phone.  If it looks like a misogynistic racist, and sounds like a misogynistic racist, then it IS a misogynistic racist, in my book.  Enough of that – the wear and tear placed on my keyboard as I have typed the last paragraph is more than Stephen A. Smith deserves.  OK – one more minor point – his arguments are usually wrong, and I suspect have more to do with getting a reaction than his actual opinion.  The only problem with that is Stephen A. Smith is not intelligent enough to defend his ACTUAL position on an issue, much less a position he has only taken to generate controversy.  But, he seems to have found the best coping mechanism of all for having ill-formed arguments and not having facts on his side – the volume dial.  Screamin’ A. Smith – guys like you, they do grow on trees…down by the bottom of the trunk…most people call them fungi.

Before I get to the “analysis”  (let the record show that the word analysis is in quotations.  That is because I am going to let the facts decide the predictions and then defend what the facts say.  Kind of a similar chameleon approach like Stephen A. Smith uses, except for I will have all the facts on my side, will not scream, and will try to tone DOWN the douche-i-ness, instead of trying to ramp it up like Stephen A. does.) – anyway, before I get to the “analysis”, I would like to bring up one more point that could certainly trump anything else that appears below – karma.  I spoke of karma and football in one of my very first columns on this blog, where (prophetically, I might add) I explained the role karma could have in the Giants upsetting the Patriots in February of 2008.

Is it “karma significant” that the Jets are coming back to Indy after Indy told the entire world “we think we are more important than any of the teams fighting the Jets for a playoff spot, so we are going to roll over in this game”?  You bet it is.  Maybe Indy fans should call their buddies in Cincinnati and ask how that worked out for the Bengals a couple of weeks ago.

Is it “karma significant” that just last week, at the end of the Dallas game, Brad Childress committed the most classless coaching display in the NFL since the Pats stopped running up the score in November of 2007?  You bet your ass it is.  Perhaps Brad Childress should call Bill Belichick and ask how that worked out…as if The Hoodie would even take a call from someone that couldn’t hold his jock.

Anyway – stats are stats and karma is karma.  The Colts and Vikings are operating at a huge deficit of the latter, and that might be enough to propel the Saints and Jets to Miami.  Just in case, let’s see what the stats have to say.

OK – for a quick background on the approach.  We are going to use a modified version of the 10-point Must System from boxing.  Here are the rules:

1. If one team’s advantage over the other team is a < 5% advantage, then each team gets the full 10 points possible for that stat
2. If the advantage is between 5.01% and 20.0%, then the statistically superior team gets a 10-9 advantage for that stat
3. If the advantage is 20.01% or higher, than it is a 10-8 advantage for that stat
4. We are not including every stat – just those that could affect a game of this magnitude.  For instance, we are not including “Total Plays from Scrimmage”, as that has little bearing with 3 out of the 4 offenses this weekend being categorized as “explosive”.  I did, however, include not only “Fourth Down Conversion Percentage” but also “Total Fourth Down Attempts”, as that is a direct reflection of the size of the head coach’s onions, which could absolutely have an impact on both of these games.  SIDE NOTE – Piling on at the end of the Dallas game does not mean you have onions, Brad Childress – it means you are an a-hole.
5. We are only looking at regular season stats, not the past 2 weekends.  I realize that Jets are on a roll that has them looking an awful lot like the Giants looked 2 years ago and the Steelers looked like a year ago, perhaps even exceeding their regular season performance in certain statistical areas.  Since there is no way to quantify momentum, and since the sample size of a 17-game regular season should be more statistically relevant, we are just using the regular season stats.

Let’s get to the stats, already!  Actually, one more thing.  As a self-admitted Colts hater and someone who watches Colts games like a hawk, just to have more ammunition in my easily won arguments with Colts fans, let me give Jets fans some advice.  While watching the game on Sunday, do NOT look too closely at the battle between the Colts offensive line and the Jets defensive line.  You will drive yourself insane by halftime.  You see, Peyton Manning’s offensive line does not get called for holding, by edict from the Commissioner of the National Football League.  Sorry, that’s how it is.  Deal with it.

Saints fans, read the last couple of sentences and substitute “Brett Favre” for “Peyton Manning”.  Trust me, you will save yourself a lot of anguish if you know going in that you have a better chance of seeing Brad Childress with a full head of hair than seeing a holding call against the Vikings offensive line.

Without further ado, here are the stats.

And here comes the “analysis”.  What a surprise – the Colts offense is WAY better than the Jets offense.  And the Jets defense is WAY better than the Colts defense.  But the Colts enjoy a slight advantage in the “General” statistics and a pretty sizable special teams advantage (actually, that one IS kind of a surprise – seems like they are always giving up a TD in the return game).  It stands to reason that the Colts should win this game, but people have been saying that about the Jets’ opponents for several weeks now, and it hasn’t happened yet.

As for the NFC Championship game, of course we knew that these 2 teams were evenly matched.  I was surprised that the Saints defense was on solid statistical footing with the Vikings defense, but they both  played some pretty atrocious competition throughout the year.

Anyway – I said that I would let the stats pick the games for me, and that is what I am going to do.  Here are the picks for each game, along with a prop bet I would love to see for each game.  As always, home team in ALL CAPS.

INDIANAPOLIS (-9) over NY Jets.  I think that the Jets will rattle Manning just like they rattled Rivers, which will make me very happy…but the Colts defense has been finding a way to get it done all year.  I know – I am as surprised as you are.

Final Score:  Indianapolis 30,  NY Jets 17

Over/Under For Uncalled BLATANT Holds in the Interior of the Indy Offensive Line:  7,431 (HINT: take the “over”)

Minnesota (+4) over NEW ORLEANS.  This game has “3-point Victory” written all over it.  I think that New Orleans will get it done in the dome, but a 3-point victory is not a cover, so give me the Vikes and the points.  As long as The All-Time Interception Leader breaks his current tie with Jim Kelly for most PLAYOFF interceptions all-time, I will be happy.

Final Score:  New Orleans 34, Minnesota 31

Over/Under For Times Someone Brings Up the Fact that No Professional Athlete Has Ever Had a Season Like This at the Age of 40 That Hasn’t Been Taking Steroids and/or HGH: 0.5 (HINT: sadly, you should bet the house on the “under”)

As for the Sunday picks last week, I don’t know what to say.  I was actually at work on Sunday and ended up Tweeting my picks moments before kickoff.  I changed the text of my Tweet from “Baltimore (+3.5)” to “New England (-3.5)” and back again twice.  Finally, I was out of time and talked myself into “do I really want to back John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco over Bill Belichick and Tom Brady at home?”  As for the Arizona-GB game, who the hell cares?  I would have gladly lost money on that game just to have the opportunity to watch it…if gambling were legal, I mean.  As a side note – if Aaron Rodgers could go back in time, do you think he would still try to kick at his fumble, knowing the results of that misguided pursuit, or just let it fall to the ground and take his chances on a defensive stand and the game riding on the foot of Neil Rackers?

Anyway, without further ado, here are the picks for Week 2.  As always, home team in ALL CAPS.

NEW ORLEANS (-7) over Arizona.  I think with the Cardinals defense, the Reverend Warner is going to have to replicate his performance from a week ago.  I do not think the odds are in his favor.  If he comes within 80% of duplicating his performance from last week, at his age, it would absolutely be the most impressive 2-week run in the playoffs by any quarterback in the history of the NFL.  It just does not seem possible.  Without Warner playing perfect, or damn close to it, this game is a laugher.  PREDICTION:  New Orleans 42, Arizona 17

Baltimore (-7) over INDIANAPOLIS.  I think Jim Caldwell is Tony Dungy by another name.  Translation – regular season success, career losing record in the playoffs, and a long tradition of having his team be grossly underprepared when it matters most.  I could be dead wrong about the actual pick here – after all, you should never count out Manning, and the Colts defense is not quite as soft as it has been in recent years.  However, I will guarantee this – the Colts will give up at least one (probably more) big play in the kicking game, where you can point to a lack of coaching and/or focus as the primary causes.  I am not saying it will be quite as blatant as the Devin Hester KO return to start the Super Bowl (probably the clearest example of an unprepared team in the history of the NFL Super Bowl – I mean, you give up an opening KO return for a TD to the only player on the other team that can hurt you  – too bad someone other than Lovie Smith was not coaching the Bears…sitting there with 2 QBs in the sideline capable of beating the Colts and watching Rex Grossman hand the game away) – but it will be very clear that the team is not focused.  It may not matter, because all they really need is for Manning to be focused and for Dallas Clark to get free on enough first half Baltimore blitzes to make them think twice about blitzing as much as they want.

I think the deciding factor here is the game back in November, when Baltimore pushed Indy all over the field and choked the game away at the end.  I think the Baltimore offensive line will have another dominating performance…and they will need to do so.  If Indy can have even a small amount of success stopping the run, and put the game on the arm of Flacco, they will have a great chance.  I don’t think they can do it.  Baltimore could seriously have 3 running backs with more than 100 yards in this game.  PREDICTION:  Baltimore 19, Indianapolis 17

MINNESOTA (-3) over Dallas.  Normally, a Dallas victory here would be a certainty.  Dallas has “the look” more than any other playoff team right now, Minnesota has had some off weeks, Favre is 0-3 lifetime against Dallas, he is due for a 4 INT game, and DaMarcus Ware might just end his streak of consecutive starts and his career before the end of the first half.  Then again, there is NO ONE outside of the Twin Cities picking Minnesota…and I mean NO ONE.  I can’t get anyone to even make an argument for the Vikes…which is why they just might win this game.

I think this is one of those games that have only 2 out of the 4 outcomes possible – Minnesota in a tight game or Dallas in a blow out.  I don’t know if Wade Phillips has the stones to win a close game in that building, and I know for a FACT that Jason Garrett does not have the testicular fortitude to handle that kind of moment.  But Dallas is playing well enough now that I don’t think they could end up on the wrong side of a laugher.  Childress and Favre in the playoffs…they could DEFINITELY end up down by 30 points at the half.  Probably not, though.  PREDICTION: Minnesota 21, Dallas 17

NY Jets (+8) over SAN DIEGO.  This is an absolute perfect matchup for the Jets.  San Diego must throw the ball to win, and the Jets are great against the pass.  The Jets must run the ball to win, and San Diego is horrible against the run.  You just have the feeling that this is going to one of those games like the Dallas-Giants game a couple of years ago.  Back and forth until the 4th quarter, and you end up with a great defense getting all geeked up on the sideline, realizing that all they have to do is come up with 1 or 2 stops, and they are in the conference championship game.  I believe the Jets defense is good enough to go out and dictate the outcome in that situation.  That’s right – I am picking the J-E-T-S-JetsJetsJets to win this one outright. PREDICTION:  Jets 17, San Diego 13